[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260039 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
738 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2016

Corrected for the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for observations
in the HISPANIOLA section, and for the ATLANTIC OCEAN section...

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called: AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W 08N35W and 13N39W.
The ITCZ also is along 10N50W 10N60W. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward
from 40W eastward.

A surface trough curves along 16N38W, to a 1011 mb low pressure
center that is near 13N44W, to 10N47W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 10N to 18N between 38W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 100W in Mexico. Upper level NW wind
flow is moving from Mexico, across the open waters of the Gulf of
Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel. Upper level SW wind flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico to the northeast of the line that runs
from the NW corner of the area, into the central Gulf of Mexico,
to the Florida Keys.

A shallow frontal boundary extends from the Florida Panhandle, as
cold, into the north central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes
stationary there, and it continues to the deep south of Texas.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the west of
the line from 30N92W to 24N91W to 19N92W, from 22N to 28N between
85W and 90W, in the Straits of Florida, and from 28N northward
between 86W and 90W.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1025 mb high
pressure center that is near 31N70W, across central Florida, into
the central Gulf of Mexico, to a Mexico 1024 mb high pressure
center that is near 22N100W.

A surface ridge passes through the coastal plains of Mexico, into
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds
are present now, and gale-force winds are forecast to continue to
be present, for the next two days, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KATP and KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR at the NAS in Corpus Christi. light rain earlier in
Victoria has ended. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An
upper level ridge extends from NW Venezuela northwestward,
toward the Yucatan Channel. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
interior sections of Central America, in the direction of T.S.
Otto that is now in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Convectiveprecipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N
southward from 84W westward, in an area of upper level diffluent
wind flow and weak surface cyclonic wind flow.

Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong from 13N
to 16N between 75W and 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
from 16N southward between 65W and 70W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
24/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.61 in
Trinidad, 0.10 in Kingston in Jamaica, 0.08 in Curacao, 0.05 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.04 in Guadeloupe, and 0.03 in St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the
coastal waters/coastal areas of Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: MVFR. few
cumulonimbus clouds. ceiling at 2000 feet. Santo Domingo: MVFR.
few cumulonimbus clouds. ceiling at 1600 feet. La Romana and
Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling. Santiago: VFR. few cumulonimbus
clouds. Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during day one. A trough will approach the
area from the west at the end of day one. SW wind flow will become
NW wind flow after the trough crosses the island. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that an anticyclonic circulation center
will be in the Atlantic Ocean, and that it will pass to the north
of the area during day one, and to the NE of the area during day
two. Expect NE wind flow until the anticyclonic center is directly
to the north of Hispaniola. The wind direction will shift from the
N to the NE and E as the anticyclonic center moves to the
northeast and away from the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
mb shows that E and SE wind flow will move across the area on day
one, with a ridge. Expect variable wind flow for day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N40W to 30N45W. A stationary front
continues from 30N45W to 24N55W 22N66W, curving to the Windward
Passage and the western sections of Haiti. A surface trough is
in the Atlantic Ocean along 51W/52W from 23N to 26N. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
23N to 26N between 49W and 51W. Isolated moderate from 20N to
24N between 60W and 76W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere to
the NW of the frontal boundary. An upper level trough is along
32N53W to 25N55W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is
to the NW of the cold front/stationary front. A 1025 mb high
pressure center is near 31N70W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N33W to 25N38W 17N42W and
13N43W. A surface trough is along 27N40W, to a 1011 mb low
pressure center that is near 22N39W, to 21N38W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
21N to 26N between 30W and 38W. Similar precipitation covers the
area that is elsewhere from 10N to 25N from 40W eastward.
Isolated moderate from 07N to 17N between 40W and 55W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 26N
northward from 26W eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is
associated with a trough that is outside the area. The trough is
supporting a cold front that passes through 32N11W to 29N19W,
beyond 32N26W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 26N northward from 30W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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