[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W 08N35W and 13N39W.
The ITCZ also is along 10N50W 10N60W. Convective precipitation:
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward
from 40W eastward.

A surface trough curves along 16N38W, to a 1011 mb low pressure
center that is near 13N44W, to 10N47W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 10N to 18N between 38W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge is along 100W in Mexico. Upper level NW wind
flow is moving from Mexico, across the open waters of the Gulf of
Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel. Upper level SW wind flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico to the northeast of the line that runs
from the NW corner of the area, into the central Gulf of Mexico,
to the Florida Keys.

A shallow frontal boundary extends from the Florida Panhandle, as
cold, into the north central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes
stationary there, and it continues to the deep south of Texas.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the west of
the line from 30N92W to 24N91W to 19N92W, from 22N to 28N between
85W and 90W, in the Straits of Florida, and from 28N northward
between 86W and 90W.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1025 mb high
pressure center that is near 31N70W, across central Florida, into
the central Gulf of Mexico, to a Mexico 1024 mb high pressure
center that is near 22N100W.

A surface ridge passes through the coastal plains of Mexico, into
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds
are present now, and gale-force winds are forecast to continue to
be present, for the next two days, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KATP and KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR at the NAS in Corpus Christi. light rain earlier in
Victoria has ended. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. An
upper level ridge extends from NW Venezuela northwestward,
toward the Yucatan Channel. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
interior sections of Central America, in the direction of T.S.
Otto that is now in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N
southward from 84W westward, in an area of upper level diffluent
wind flow and weak surface cyclonic wind flow.

Convective precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong from 13N
to 16N between 75W and 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
from 16N southward between 65W and 70W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
24/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.61 in
Trinidad, 0.10 in Kingston in Jamaica, 0.08 in Curacao, 0.05 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.04 in Guadeloupe, and 0.03 in St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the
coastal waters/coastal areas of Hispaniola.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area during day one. A trough will approach the
area from the west at the end of day one. SW wind flow will become
NW wind flow after the trough crosses the island. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that an anticyclonic circulation center
will be in the Atlantic Ocean, and that it will pass to the north
of the area during day one, and to the NE of the area during day
two. Expect NE wind flow until the anticyclonic center is directly
to the north of Hispaniola. The wind direction will shift from the
N to the NE and E as the anticyclonic center moves to the
northeast and away from the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700
mb shows that E and SE wind flow will move across the area on day
one, with a ridge. Expect variable wind flow for day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N47W to 26N54W to 22N61W. The cold
front is dissipating from 22N61W to 19N69W at the coast of the
Dominican Republic. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
within a 30 nm radius of 26N48W. Rainshowers are possible also to
the west of the line that passes through 32N45W, 28N50W, 19N53W,
to 16N60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean that is
to the W and NW of the cold front. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
also covers the area that is from 28N northward between 24W and
the cold front.

An upper level trough passes through 32N23W to 23N40W 16N44W and
09N49W. A surface trough is along 25N37W, to a 1011 mb low
pressure center that is near 24N38W, to 21N38W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N to 27N
from 44W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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