[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 7N12W to 6N15W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 5N27W to east of a surface trough near
13N39W, then resumes west of the trough near 11N49W to 9N59W.
The surface trough embedded within the ITCZ extends from 17N41W
to 9N46W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 1N-6N between 9W-24W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 11N-17N between 29W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper trough inland over the eastern CONUS is supporting a
cold front that extends into the north Gulf near the
Florida/Alabama border and continues to 28N92W where it becomes
stationary to the coast of Texas near 28N97W. Isolated showers
are within 30 nm east of the cold front. A surface ridge
anchored over Colorado extends over the remainder of the Gulf
with a 1028 mb high over the Lower Mississippi Valley and a
weaker 1022 mb high over northeast Mexico. The front will weaken
while a reinforcing front moves into the northwest Gulf later
today, merging with the current front, then reaching from
northern Florida to south Texas early Saturday before weakening
across the south Gulf Sunday and Sunday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge dominates the Caribbean east of 82W today
anchored inland over Venezuela with near zonal westerly flow
aloft west of 82W. Difflunce aloft over the central Caribbean is
enhancing scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms south of 18N west of 66W and south of 12N east of
66W across the Windward Islands to 59W. Surface ridge over the
west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong northeast winds over
the northwest and north-central Caribbean through tonight before
subsiding.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic to the
Windward Passage near 20N74W. The front coupled with easterly
surface flow are developing isolated showers across the island
this afternoon. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
will be possible today and into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge extends from the northern Bahama Islands to
beyond 32N75W. A surface ridge covers the west Atlantic north of
22N west of 55W and anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32N70W. An
upper trough covers the central Atlantic north of 30N supporting
a cold front entering the central Atlantic near 32N42W to 29N48W
where it continues as a stationary front along 23N59W 22N65W to
the Windward Passage near 20N74W. This front trisects an area of
strong subsidence and dry air, limiting shower activity. A
surface trough is to the east of the front extending from 27N50W
to 23N51W with scattered showers within 150 nm east of the
surface trough. An upper trough is further east supporting a
surface trough that extends from 26N37W to 20N39W. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 21N-26N
between 35W-38W. A large deep layered low is over Spain and
Portugal supporting a cold front that enters the east Atlantic
near 32N14W and extends along 30N20W returning northward to
beyond 32N24W. A weak surface ridge is between the central
Atlantic front and the above front anchored by a 1022 mb high
about 200 nm southwest of the Azores. The west Atlantic high
will shift eastward and weaken through Saturday. A cold front
will move into the northwest Atlantic Saturday and will reach
from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net