[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 10.4N 79.4W at 22/1800 UTC
or about 280 nm ESE of Bluefields Nicaragua and about 210 nm E of
Limon Costa Rica remaining nearly stationary. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt
with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 09N-14N between 77W-82W. Isolated moderate
convection is elsewhere from 08N-17N between 75W-83W. See latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N16W to 07N24W to 15N33W to 11N46W to 12N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 08W-15W...from 06N-10N
between 22W-37W...and from 10N-25N between 23W-32W. Much of this
area of convection is enhanced by a cut-off middle to upper level
low centered near 23N36W and focused on a 1012 mb surface low
centered near 20N35W and the associated surface trough extending
from 27N35W through the low center to the ITCZ axis near 15N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The Gulf is under the influence of dry and stable westerly flow
aloft with a subtle upper level trough axis extending from 29N88W
to 17N92W and mid-level ridging over the basin and SE CONUS. At
the surface...broad ridging is providing overall fair skies and
conditions with gentle to moderate E winds generally E of 90W and
moderate to occasional fresh S-SE winds W of 90W. Looking ahead...
the ridge is expected to gradually shift eastward into the SW
North Atlc region through Wednesday with S-SE return flow
maintaining itself across portions of the western Gulf waters. An
area of low pressure will eject out of the Rockies into the
central Plains during this time with the associated weak cold
front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Wednesday
afternoon or early evening. The weak front will quickly become
stationary and diffuse across the NW Gulf and north-central Gulf
waters Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main feature in the Caribbean Sea is Tropical Storm Otto. Otto
is located at the western extent of a stationary front extending
across the Mona Passage into a weak 1009 mb low centered near
15N72W. While convection remains centralized in the vicinity of
Otto...widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally
within 180 nm either side of the stationary front. In addition...
to the W of the front fresh to occasional strong NE winds are
occurring N of 14N between 70W-84W across portions of the western
and north-central Caribbean. The front is supported aloft by a
broad middle to upper level trough over the western North Atlc.
Otto is expected to drift slowly westward toward the Nicaragua and
Costa Rica coast with fresh to strong NE winds expected W of 70W
to continue between the area of lower pressure and a ridge
anchored across the SE CONUS and SW North Atlc region through
much of the week.

...HISPANIOLA...
A stationary front extends across the Mona Passage into a 1009 mb
low centered near 15N72W providing focus for scattered showers
and isolated tstms within 180 nm either side of the boundary.
Increased cloudiness and isolated showers are noted across
southeastern portions of Hispaniola this afternoon. With the front
expected to remain in place to the SE of the island...
precipitation and possible stronger convection is likely through
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the SW North Atlc region this afternoon supporting a
dissipating stationary front analyzed from 32N59W SW to the
eastern Cuba coast near 22N77W. Isolated showers are possible
within 45 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder
of the area to the W of the front is influenced by surface ridging
anchored across the Carolinas. To the E of the front across the
central Atlc...embedded within the broad troughing...mid-level
energy supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N53W to 20N67W
through the Mona Passage and into the central Caribbean Sea. Low-
level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the front along with
middle to upper level diffluence is generating scattered showers
and isolated tstms within 360 nm SE of the front. Finally...
across the eastern Atlc...a 1012 mb low is centered near 20N35W.
This area of low pressure is supported aloft by a middle to upper
low centered near 23N36W. A surface trough extends N from the low
center to 27N35W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
occurring from 14N-26N between 22W-33W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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