[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221156 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Updated for 22/1200 UTC Otto information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Otto is centered near 10.5N 79.1W at 22/1200 UTC
or about 195 nm SE of San Andres Island and about 290 nm ESE of
Bluefields Nicaragua. Otto is currently nearly stationary.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong
convection is within 75 nm from the center of Otto. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N-16N between 77W-83W.
See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N16W to 12N21W. The ITCZ begins near 11N37W and
continues along 10N50W to near 10N60W. Scattered to isolated
showers are within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface and middle level ridging as well as deep layer dry air
continue to support stable conditions and fair weather over the
entire Gulf of Mexico. The latest scatterometer data show gentle
NE flow E of 90W and moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow W of
90W. The surface ridge currently anchored over southern Ohio will
move NE through Wednesday near sunrise and will provide return
flow ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf waters at
night. The front will stall along the northern Gulf Coast Thursday
before dissipating Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Otto located in
the SW Caribbean. Please see Special Features above. A
stationary front extends from the central Atlantic across eastern
Puerto Rico near 18N65W SW to a 1008 mb low located near 15N72W.
Scattered to isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of
the frontal boundary. The tail of a second partial stationary
front continues to weaken across central Cuba to 20N79W. No
convection is associated with this second frontal boundary. Otto
is expected to strengthen to a hurricane during the next 36 hours.
Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over San Andres and Providencia
islands, and portions of central and western Panama and
southeastern Costa Rica through Wednesday, with isolated totals
upwards of 10 to 15 inches across the higher terrain of Central
America. These rains could result in life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. The leading stationary front will weaken
today and dissipate overnight.

...HISPANIOLA...

The stationary front that extends from the central Atlantic
across eastern Puerto Rico into the Caribbean is generating
scattered to isolated showers over the the eastern Dominican
Republic and adjacent waters. Lingering moisture associated with
the front is forecast to continue to give the island showers and
possible thunderstorms through early Thursday, with the highest
concentration over the Dominican Republic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough covers the west and the central Atlantic
supporting a leading stationary front that extends through 30N54W
along 22N62W across eastern Puerto Rico and then into the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered to isolated showers are within 150 nm
either side of the front. The upper trough also supports a cold
front that extends from 30N61W to 24N71W where it becomes
stationary to central Cuba and into the northwest Caribbean. This
reinforcing cold front is embedded within dry, stable air aloft,
limiting shower activity. A surface ridge anchored over the
eastern CONUS extends over the far west Atlantic west of the
reinforcing cold front. A middle level low supports a surface
trough that extends from 23N31W through a 1011 mb low near 17N34W
continuing to 14N35W. The upper low is supporting scattered
moderate convection and isolated thunderstorms from 10N-15N
between 24W-30W. A surface ridge dominates the central and east
Atlantic north of 26N between 20W and 50W anchored by a 1031 mb
high NW of the Azores. The west Atlantic reinforcing cold front
will continue to move east merging with the leading stationary
front today. The stationary portion of the reinforcing front will
dissipate today.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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