[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
northwest Gulf of Mexico tonight, then reach from the Straits of
Florida to the southwest Gulf by Sunday morning. Strong high
pressure will build in behind the front, allowing winds to build
to gale force south 25N west of 95W within 90 nm of the coast of
Mexico Saturday and south of 22N near Veracruz Saturday night
through Sunday morning. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 8N18W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 8N23W 11N28W 8N30W to near 8N49W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection covers the area from 7N-
13N between 21W-30W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from 3N-6N between 4W-13W and from 6N-10N
between 18W-21W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 31W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass remains in place over the Gulf of
Mexico again this morning with a surface ridge extending over
the Gulf from the southeast CONUS anchored by a series of highs
inland along the eastern seaboard. This is giving the Gulf clear
skies and tranquil conditions again this morning. The surface
ridge is giving the Gulf east to southeast return flow that will
persist through today. A strong cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf tonight and reach the Straits of Florida to
the southwest Gulf by Sunday morning bringing gale force winds
to the west-central and southwest Gulf Saturday and early
Sunday. See Special Features above.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A remnant stationary front extends from the west Atlantic along
the north coast of Hispaniola to the Windward Passage near
19.5N74W continuing just south of the Cayman Islands along
19N80W, then to the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. South of the
front is a persistent broad 1006 mb low near 12N82W. Clusters of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south the front
to the coast of Panama and Costa Rica between 76W-83W, including
portions of Jamaica. This activity is being enhanced by an upper
ridge that has persisted over the Caribbean this week. A second
surface trough is moving across the central Caribbean extending
along 69W from 13N-18N. Scattered to numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms are within 75 nm of a line from 16N73W
to over the Greater Antilles near 18N67W including Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic. The stationary front will persist
from the Windward Passage to Honduras through Saturday night. A
new cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Sunday.
The broad area of low pressure will persist through the weekend.
The second surface trough will continue west through tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front extends from the west-central Atlantic near
20N70W, then along the north coast of the island to the Windward
Passage near 19.5N74W continuing over the west Caribbean. A
surface trough is just south of the Mona Passage and coupled
with the frontal boundary are generating scattered showers
possible isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic this
morning. This front will lie across the north portion of the
island through Saturday, and coupled with the surface trough
moving through the central Caribbean will give the island
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms spreading
west across the island today and will persist through Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough reaching from the Canadian Maritimes off New
England over the west Atlantic is supporting a cold front that
extends through 32N61W to 24N65W where it pulls up stationary to
along the north coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W to the Windward
Passage near 19.5N74W and continues into the west Caribbean.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm east of the cold front. A pre-
frontal surface trough extends from 23N64W to 19N67W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N to over Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic west of 64W to the stationary
front. The upper low in the east Atlantic is elongated from
32N16W 30N24W to 23N40W supporting a surface trough that extends
from 29N29W to 23N31W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are from 27N-29N west of 26W to the surface
trough. A large surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
east and central Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high about 400
nm west-northwest of the Azores. The west Atlantic cold front
will continue to move east into the central Atlantic today while
the stationary front will persist through Saturday. A strong
cold front will enter the west Atlantic Saturday night and
extend from 32N68W to the northern Bahamas Sunday and from
Bermuda to west Cuba Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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