[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
northwest Gulf of Mexico Friday night, then reach from south
Florida to the southwest Gulf by Sunday morning. Strong high
pressure will build in behind the front, allowing winds to build
to gale force over portions of the west-central and southwest
Gulf along the coast of Mexico starting Saturday morning near
Tampico then shifting south into the west Bay of Campeche
Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Please refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/AXNT20
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W to 11N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues along 12N29W to near 9N46W. Scattered strong
convection is from 9N-12N between 27W-30W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection covers the remainder of the area from
8N-13N between 26W-33W and from 10N-14N between 20W-26W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
from 3N-6N between 3W-17W and from 6N-9N between 33W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A dry and stable airmass remains in place over the Gulf of
Mexico again tonight with a surface ridge extending over the
Gulf from the southeast CONUS anchored by a series of highs
inland over the east CONUS. This is giving the Gulf clear skies
and tranquil conditions again tonight. The surface ridge is
giving the Gulf east to southeast return flow that will persist
through Friday. A strong cold front will move into the northwest
Gulf late Friday night and reach south Florida to the southwest
Gulf by Sunday morning bringing gale force winds to the west-
central and southwest Gulf Saturday and Sunday. See Special
Features above.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A remnant cold front extends from the west Atlantic across north
Haiti to the Windward Passage where it pulls up stationary,
continuing just south of the Cayman Islands along 19N81W, then
to the coast of Honduras near 16N86W. South of the front is a
persistent broad 1007 mb low near 12N81W. Clusters of scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are south of 17N to
the coast of Panama between 76W-83W. This activity is being
enhanced by an upper ridge that has persisted over the Caribbean
this week. A second surface trough is moving into the central
Caribbean extending along 68W from 13N-17N. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-18N between 65W-72W
including the south coast of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The
cold front will remain nearly stationary from the Windward
Passage to Honduras through Saturday night. The low will meander
over the southwest Caribbean through the weekend. The second
surface trough will continue west through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

A cold front extends from the west-central Atlantic near 20N71W,
then along the north coast of Haiti to the Windward Passage
where it pulls up stationary into the west Caribbean. This is
generating isolated showers across portions of the the island.
This front will lie across the north portion of the island
through Saturday, and coupled with the surface trough moving
through the central Caribbean will give the island scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough reaching from the Canadian Maritimes into the
west Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends through
32N62W along 24N65W to along the north coast of Hispaniola near
20N71W to the Windward Passage and continuing into the west
Caribbean as a stationary front. Isolated showers are within 60
nm east and south of the front. A pre-frontal surface trough
extends from 24N64W to 19N67W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 21N to over Puerto Rico and to the coast
of Hispaniola between 65W-68W. The upper low in the east
Atlantic is becoming elongated from 32N13W 29N26W to 23N40W
supporting a surface trough along 27W from 26N-31N. Scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are from 27N-30N
between 24W-29W. A large surface ridge dominates the remainder
of the east and central Atlantic anchored by a 1031 mb high
about 450 nm west-northwest of the Azores. The north portion of
the west Atlantic cold front will continue to move east while
the south portion will become stationary. The front will reach
from 32N59W to 22N65W then stationary to the Windward Passage
Friday afternoon. The cold front will continue into the central
Atlantic Saturday. The next even stronger cold front is expected
in the west Atlantic Saturday night and extend from 32N66W to
the Straits of Florida by Sunday evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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