[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near
08N13W. The ITCZ continues from 08N13W to 09N28W 06N33W, and
07N48W. Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
and locally strong from 10N southward from 48W eastward.

A surface trough curves along 20N52W 16N56W 10N57W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
07N to 12N between 48W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow, that is moving across the area, is part
of a larger-scale area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow. The
SW wind flow is moving from Mexico, from 109W eastward, across
the Gulf of Mexico, and beyond Florida.

A cold front passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
27N81W in Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee, to 27N86W in
the Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front is along 24N85W 24N90W 22N92W, to a 1013 mb
low pressure center that is near 19N93W, to 18N93W. Convective
precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are within 300 nm on either side of the line that
passes through 28N80W 25N90W 22N98W.

A surface ridge passes through the deep south of Texas, through
the coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are blowing in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico.
Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Port Isabel. MVFR in Port Lavaca. from LOUISIANA:
to Alabama: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Key West
International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. An upper level
anticyclonic circulation center is in the central part of the
Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area
from 67W westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 70W eastward. Middle level NE wind flow covers this
area of comparatively drier air.

A surface trough is in the western sections of the Caribbean Sea,
along 17N79W 14N81W 10N81W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 18N
southward between 75W and 85W, including in parts of Central
America from Honduras southward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
14/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.83 in
Curacao, 0.53 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.22 in Merida
in Mexico, 0.15 in Monterrey in Mexico, 0.09 in Guadeloupe, and
0.02 in San Juan in Puerto Rico and in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
A surface trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean along 22N63W
20N67W to the SE corner of the Dominican Republic. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 18N to 24N between
60W and 70W, including in the coastal waters/coastal areas of the
eastern part of the Dominican Republic. Isolated moderate to
locally strong also from 16N northward between 69W and 74W in the
southern coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. ceiling
at 5000 feet. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no
ceilings. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceilings.
few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: light rain. ceiling at 1800
feet. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santiago: VFR/no ceilings. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Puerto Plata: rain has ended for the moment. VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 30 to 36 hours or so,
followed by W and SW wind flow, as an anticyclonic circulation
center moves directly to the south of Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will start with NE and N
wind flow, becoming anticyclonic in general by the end of day one.
The anticyclonic circulation center will move from being on top of
Hispaniola at the start of day two, eastward, giving way to S wind
flow for the rest of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb
shows that anticyclonic wind flow will cover the area for much of
the next 48 hours. The wind flow will become southerly, as the
anticyclonic circulation center moves eastward, by the end of the
48 hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level NW wind flow moves from Florida toward a central
Atlantic Ocean deep layer trough. The deep layer trough is
supporting a 1014 mb low pressure center and an occluded frontal
boundary. The 1014 mb low pressure center is near 29N55W. The
triple point for the occlusion is near 30N52W. The cold front is
along 30N52W 26N53W 25N63W. A surface trough extends from the 1014
mb low pressure center to 27N58W 27N63W. The upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 29N56W. Convective precipitation:
numerous strong from 26N to 32N between 47W and 52W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 44W and 68W.

A surface trough is along 22N63W 20N67W to the SE corner of the
Dominican Republic. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 18N to 24N between 60W and 70W, including in the
coastal waters/coastal areas of the eastern part of the Dominican
Republic.

An upper level trough curves from a 29N18W cyclonic circulation
center, to 23N30W 16N39W and 13N50W. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the area from 12N northward between 20W and 45W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N
northward from 43W eastward, and within 360 nm to the NW of the
trough from 13N to 20N. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward between Africa and 45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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