[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141131
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N15W to 7N17W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 6N29W 4N36W 6N46W to 7N54W. A surface trough
extends from 13N56W to 9N57W with scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 10N-13N between 53W-57W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 45/60 nm of a line from
8N44W to 6N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 90/120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 34W-38W and
within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 46W-50W. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are within 150 nm either side of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 14W-34W and from 8N-12N between
49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A remnant stationary front remains in the southwest Gulf
extending from a 1013 mb low near 19N94W northeast along 23N91W
then east to 24N86W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are southeast of the front west of 90W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm north and west of the front. A new
cold front extends from the west Atlantic across Florida from
Titusville to Tampa into the Gulf to 27N86W. A broad upper ridge
covers the Gulf anchored in the Caribbean giving the Gulf
westerly flow aloft. This upper flow is advecting tropical
moisture across the Gulf and is generating scattered to numerous
showers north of 25N except west of a line from Atchafalaya Bay,
Louisiana to 28N94W to near Corpus Christi, Texas where skies
are clear this morning. A surface ridge is building across the
west Gulf anchored by a 1022 mb high over east Texas and a 1024
mb high over east Mexico. The front and low will linger through
Monday then dissipate Tuesday. The new cold front will move
south and reach from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan
peninsula Tuesday then will shift east out of the Gulf
Wednesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An elongated upper ridge extends from east to west anchored near
15N78W and extends to over the Gulf of Mexico and the west
Atlantic. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from
18N80W along 14N81W to 11N81W generating scattered to numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms from 11N-17N between 76W-
83W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of
11N between Colombia to Costa Rica and within 60 nm along the
south coast of Haiti between the Dominican REpublic border and
74W. The east Caribbean is tranquil again this morning. The
surface trough trough will persist through midweek. A weak cold
front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Tuesday night
and stall from central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

A surface trough extends from the central Atlantic along 20N69W
over the island to near 18N71W. However, skies have cleared
across the island this morning. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 60 nm along the south coast of Haiti
between the Dominican Republic border and 74W. Afternoon showers
will continue over the island this afternoon and again on
Tuesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean extends over the west
Atlantic west of 65W. At the surface is a weak cold front that
extends through 32N78W then across Florida near Titusville and
into the Gulf of Mexico. A broad upper trough covers the
remainder of the west Atlantic into the central Atlantic
supporting a cold front that extends through 32N51W and
continues to 27N63W where it becomes stationary to 27N70W. A
surface trough precedes the front extending through 32N47W along
29N49W to 265N56W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north 26N between the surface trough and the
front. A second surface trough is to the south extending from
23N63W along 20N69W to over Hispaniola. A broad surface ridge
covers the east Atlantic anchored by a 1035 mb high about 750 nm
northeast of the Azores. The west Atlantic cold front will
continue east reaching from 32N66W to Hispaniola Wednesday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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