[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 AM EST THU NOV 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Near gale to gale force northerly flow is funneling up across the
offshore waters of east-central Mexico...with the strongest winds
offshore of Veracruz. These winds are occurring between a
stationary front along 95W and a surface ridge axis extending from
across the Rio Grande River valley S-SE to 21N98W. The pressure
gradient and the front itself is expected to weaken overnight
into Thursday...allowing for the winds to diminish to below gale
force.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
08N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N17W to 08N39W to 08N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 02N-07N between 08W-20W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03N-16N between 24W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
progressing eastward offshore of the Carolinas this evening
supporting a cold front analyzed from northern Florida SW to
27N92W then meanders W-SW then S as a stationary front along
26N95W to 19N95W. To the S of the front...a 1014 mb low is
centered near 26N87W with a surface trough extending E to the
Florida peninsula near Fort Myers and W-SW to 25N91W to 21N93W.
Abundant moisture from the Pacific continues moving northeastward
across central Mexico and much of the Gulf basin supporting
scattered showers and isolated tstms mainly N of 25N and W of
90W. Earlier scatterometer data along with recent buoy and ship
observations indicate gentle to moderate E-SE flow across the SE
Gulf waters with fresh to strong N-NE flow found generally N of
the frontal boundary. Looking ahead...the low is expected to move
E while the eastern portion of the front sags southward with the
low becoming absorbed by the front within the next 24 hours. The
front is expected to gradually become stationary from the Straits
of Florida to the western waters near 23N96W by the end of the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge extends across the western Caribbean...while
a broad and weak upper level trough is noted over the NE portion
of the basin. At the surface...a trough extends from the Gulf of
Honduras SE to offshore of Nicaragua near 13N81W. Another surface
trough...which has the characteristics of a tropical wave...
extends from 10N63W to 21N63W. A 1010 mb surface low persists
along this trough near 14N63W. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms continue to impact the Lesser Antilles mainly from 13N-17N.
The latest observations show mainly moderate trades across the
basin that are expected to persist through Friday. The trough in
the eastern Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean Friday
before dissipating...while the western Caribbean trough persists
and remains nearly stationary.

...HISPANIOLA...
A weakening shear line extends across the northern portion of the
island providing a focus for very isolated shower and tstm
activity. This boundary will continue to become diffuse during
the next 12 to 24 hours...with mainly fair weather expected on
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough extends across the NW portion of
the SW North Atlc this evening supporting a cold front extending
from 32N78W SW to the Florida peninsula near Jacksonville.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 300 nm E
of the front. The associated low pressure area is forecast to
remain across the waters N of the discussion area...however the
cold front will progress eastward through Friday across the
waters N of 24N to 55W. Farther east...an upper level trough axis
extending along 56W and supports a surface trough analyzed from
32N46W to 24N60W and becomes a shear line to 20N70W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 300 nm either side
of a line from 13N58W to 32N49W. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high
centered SE of the Azores near 36N22W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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