[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
618 PM EST WED NOV 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to minimal gale force
northerly flow is funneling up across the offshore waters of
Mexico, with the strongest winds offshore of Veracruz. These winds
are occurring to the west of a developing cold front along 94W-95W
which is in the process of stalling out. High pressure is surging
southward along the east coast of Mexico helping to support these
winds. The pressure gradient and the front itself will weaken by
late tonight, allowing for the winds to diminish to below gale
force. Seas will briefly build to up to 12 ft tonight.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near
10N14W to 09N19W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends
from 09N19W to 07N29W to 09N40W to 10N60W. The eastern portion of
the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from that basin across
Costa Rica eastward to near the northern Colombia/Venezuela border
at a 1008 mb low near 10N73W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 150 nm on the northwest side of the low.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb surface low was analyzed across the north-central Gulf
near 28N89W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low to
24N90W. A cold front is to the north and west of the low, reaching
from the Florida panhandle to the western Gulf where it continues
nearly due south along 94W-95W. Abundant moisture from the Pacific
continues moving northeastward across central Mexico and much of
the northwestern Gulf, supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly north of 20N and west of 84W. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a ridge anchored by a
weakening 1017 mb high centered across the west Atlantic. Earlier
scatterometer data along with recent buoy and ship observations
indicate gentle to moderate southerly flow ahead of the cold front
mentioned in the special features section above, except moderate
north-northeast flow is found between the developing cold front
and surface trough extending from the low. Expect for the low to
move east while the eastern portion of the front sags south. The
low will be absorbed by this front within the next 24 hours. The
front is expected to gradually become stationary from the Straits
of Florida to the western waters near 23N96W by the end of the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level ridge extends across the western Caribbean, while
a broad upper-level trough is noted over the northeast portion of
the basin. At the surface, a trough extends from the Gulf of
Honduras southeastward to offshore of Nicaragua. Another surface
trough, which has the characteristics of a tropical wave, extends
from 19N61W to the northern coast of Brazil near 10N63W. A 1010 mb
surface low persists along this trough near 14N62.5W. Active
convection continues to impact the eastern Caribbean islands
mainly north of 13N. The latest observations show mainly moderate
trades across the basin, except light northwesterly flow to the
west of the western Caribbean trough. The trough in the eastern
Caribbean will reach the central Caribbean by Friday before
dissipating, while the western Caribbean trough persists,
remaining nearly stationary.

...HISPANIOLA...

A lingering surface trough extends across the northern portion of
the island providing a focus for very isolated shower activity.
This boundary will continue to become diffuse during the next 12
to 24 hours, with mainly fair weather expected for Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough extends across the western Atlantic
supporting a 994 mb surface low centered north of the discussion
area near 41N55W. A pair of associated cold fronts are dissipating
while extending into the north-central portion of the discussion
area. A surface trough also extends from 25N59W to across northern
Hispaniola, likely becoming a shearline later this evening. An
area of scattered moderate convection prevails across the majority
of the waters between 47W and 62W. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high
centered southeast of the Azores near 36N23W. A new cold front
will move offshore of the southeast U.S. tonight, reaching from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thursday night. Fresh to strong
winds will accompany this front, both ahead of and behind it,
north of 29N within 300 nm of the boundary.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
LEWITSKY
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