[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072304
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N17W to 9N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 7N23W 8N40W to 12N56W. Scattered moderate with
embedded clusters of isolated strong convection are within
150/180 nm north of the ITCZ between 47W-54W. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from the
ITCZ to 12N between 22W-37W and from 10N-15N between 54W-58W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 2N-7N between
13W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad low amplitude upper ridge extends from the Bay of
Campeche to the north Gulf coast near the Mississippi River. A
shortwave upper trough is moving across Louisiana to the Gulf
coast supporting a surface trough analyzed from 30N80W along
28N93W to 27N97W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are north of 26N to inland over the north Gulf coast between 86W-
94W. A surface ridge axis extends from the southeast CONUS over
the Florida peninsula covering the Gulf of Mexico and into the
west Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high over Virginia. Isolated
low level showers are in the southeast Gulf and the Straits of
Florida south of 24N east of 88W. The surface trough is expected
to align north and south then shift east through Wednesday
night. A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Wednesday
and will reach from south Florida to the southwest Gulf
Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad low amplitude trough covers the west Caribbean west of
75W while an upper ridge covers the east Caribbean anchored near
Trinidad. At the surface is a surface trough that extends from
south Haiti near 18N72W to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
within 75 nm of a line from 15N71W to 17N64W. A second surface
trough is to the west extending along 79W from 15N-18N.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-17N
between 76W-79W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of 17N to across the Greater Antilles
including the the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are
across the south Caribbean south of 14N between 68W-80W. The
eastern surface trough will dissipate overnight. Fresh to strong
northeast winds are expected in the north-central Caribbean
through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The surface trough extends from south Haiti near 18N72W into the
central Caribbean generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over portions of the island this evening. Although
the surface trough is expected to dissipate, lingering moisture
will continue showers and possible thunderstorms across
the island through Wednesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper trough covers the west Atlantic supporting a
leading cold front that extends through 32N54W and continues
along 23N62W 21N71W where it dissipates as a stationary front
over Cuba near 21N78W. A reinforcing cold front trails,
extending through 32N62W along 29N66W to 29N73W. An upper ridge
to the east of the upper trough is providing difflunce aloft to
generate clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 300 nm east of the leading cold front and
south of the front to over the Greater Antilles including the
the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. A
surface ridge is building south over the Gulf of Mexico and the
west Atlantic west of 70W and anchored by a 1032 mb high over
Virginia. A second upper trough is centered over the east
Atlantic near 30N25W supporting a pair of surface troughs. One
extends from 25N40W to 21N46W with a second extending from
22N33W to 17N36W. A second surface ridge covers the remainder of
the east Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high northeast of the
Azores. The west Atlantic cold fronts will merge Tuesday and
slowly dissipate north of the Greater Antilles through the end
of the week. A third cold front will move into the west Atlantic
Thursday.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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