[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST MON NOV 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the east
Atlantic waters near 11N16W to 08N18W. The ITCZ begins from that
point to 03N29W to 09N43W to 11N54W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 200 nm north of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered over eastern Mexico 21N97W. A surface trough was
analyzed in the northwest Gulf waters from 27N97W to 29N94W. This
trough is supported by a diffluent flow aloft, with showers and
thunderstorms developing north of 26N between 91W-95W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds north of 25N while
light to gentle easterlies prevail south of 25N. Little change is
expected during the next 24 hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the western Caribbean with fair
weather. To the east, a surface trough extends southwest of
Hispaniola from 19N73W to 14N74W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed in the vicinity of the trough between 68W-73W.
To the south, the Monsoon Trough extends along 09N between 76W-
83W supporting scattered moderate convection in this area. A
diffluent flow aloft is supporting cloudiness and scattered
moderate convection north of 16N between 63W-69W affecting Puerto
Rico and the Leeward Islands. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
northerly winds across the western half of the basin while light to
gentle trades prevail across the eastern half. During the next 24
hours, the surface trough south of Hispaniola will drift east
while weakening. The convection across the northeast Caribbean
will continue.

...HISPANIOLA...

The surface trough extends southwest of the island is enhancing
isolated convection mainly across southern Haiti. The trough
drift east over the next 24 hours. Drier conditions will prevail
across the island after this.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic supporting
a pair of cold fronts analyzed from 29N72W to 31N64W and from 21N76W
to 23N64W to 31N57W. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting
scattered showers east of the second front, mainly north of 19N
between 49W-66W. To the east, a 1017 mb surface low is centered
near 30N37W with a weakening stationary front extending from the
low to 29N37W to 26N39W. A surface trough is from 26N39W to
20N44W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin. Expect
for the cold fronts in the west Atlantic to continue moving east
while weakening. A strong high pressure will build behind the
fronts across the west Atlantic. The central Atlantic low/front will
dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

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