[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...Special Features...

A 1000 mb low is centered near 27N49W with a surface trough that
extends from 34N44W along 32N47W through the low along 22N50W to
19N53W an is supported by an upper trough over the west
Atlantic. Global model guidance indicates the low is expected to
move NE and strengthen slightly tonight and be north of the area
on Friday. Gale force winds are within 120 nm west and 180 nm
east of the low. These gale force winds will track north with
the low and be within 180 nm east of the low tonight and be
north of the area on Friday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 10N13W to 9N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 10N35W to 9N53W. Clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are from 2N-9N between 15W-27W and
from 1N-7N between 30W-37W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 6N-10N between 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak remnant surface trough remains along the coast of Mexico
from Tampico along 20N96W to near Veracruz. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms from 21N-25N west of 94W. A large
upper ridge anchored over Central America extends an upper ridge
axis to over the Gulf into the CONUS near the mouth of the
Mississippi. Isolated showers are possible within 30 nm of a
line from the Straits of Florida near 25N81W to 23N86W and from
21N-25N between 89W-92W. A surface ridge extends from over the
southeast CONUS into the Gulf. The surface trough in the
southwest Gulf will persist into the weekend. A cold front will
move into the northeast Gulf Friday afternoon moving south-
southeast to the Straits of Florida this weekend. A pre-frontal
trough will move into the northeast Gulf late tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper ridge is anchored over Central America covering
the Caribbean west of 75W. At the surface is a 1011 mb low
centered near 13N82W with a surface trough extending from 16N81W
through the low to 10N83W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 12N-15N west of 81W to the coast of
Nicaragua. An upper trough extends from the west Atlantic across
the Dominican Republic/Mona Passage to the coast of Venezuela
near 10N65W supporting a 1008 mb low north of the ABC Islands
near 13N70W with a surface trough extending from the low along
14N68W 15N63W across the Lesser Antilles to 18N58W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-18N between 66W-
70W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
cover the area from 13N-20N between 58W-65W. The remainder of
the Caribbean is under clear skies this evening. The fresh to
strong winds across the north-central and northwest Caribbean
will gradually diminish tonight. The west Caribbean trough and
low will drift south and dissipate by Friday morning. The east
Caribbean low and trough will gradually dissipate through Friday
and leave a broad north/south trough along 70W this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are across
the island this evening and will persist into the weekend,
especially over the Dominican Republic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored over Central America covers the far
west Atlantic. A surface ridge covers the west Atlantic west of
60W with a 1023 mb high near 32N69W. An upper trough extends
across the west Atlantic through 32N56W along 24N64W to over the
Dominican Republic/Mona Passage into the east Caribbean
supporting a cold front that extends through 32N49W to 23N55W.
Also embedded within this area is a 1000 mb low/surface trough
in the special features above. An upper ridge anchored in the
tropics extends an upper ridge axis along 42W enhancing
scattered to numerous showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms north of 23N between 40W-50W. An upper trough over
the far east Atlantic is supporting a cold front that extends
through 21N14W along 27N21W to 25N31W with a pre-frontal trough
extending through 32N10W to inland over Africa near 28N12W.
Scattered to numerous showers are within 260 nm southeast of the
front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north
30N between 17W-22W. A cold front will move into the west
Atlantic off northeast Florida Friday afternoon with a pre-
frontal trough moving off the coast late tonight. This front
will reach Bermuda this weekend.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net