[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1000 mb low is centered near 26N50W and remains supported aloft
by a middle to upper level trough with axis extending from 32N57W
to a broad base over the NE Caribbean Sea near 17N68W. Global
model guidance indicates the low is expected to move NE and
strengthen slightly during the next 24 hours across the central
Atlc. Maintaining strength due to favorable middle to upper level
dynamics...near gale to gale force conditions result at the
surface in the vicinity of the low and are expected to persist
through 04/1800 UTC as the low center moves N of the discussion
area. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from the African
coast near 08N13W to 09N26W to 06N41W to 07N48W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-08N between
16W-33W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
07N-12N between 10W-30W...and from 04N-12N between 42W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
Upper level ridging prevails over much of the Gulf basin this
afternoon with dry and stable NW flow noted on water vapor imagery
E of 90W and relatively moist and marginally unstable air within
SW flow aloft W of 90W. Beneath the southerly flow...a surface
trough is analyzed across the SW Gulf waters from 18N95W to
23N98W. Convergent easterly winds on the east side of the trough
axis along with the diffluence aloft is generating scattered
showers and isolated strong tstms from 18N-26N between 94W-98W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of
surface ridging anchored by a 1025 mb high centered across
Georgia. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected to continue
through tonight. Overnight into Friday...the ridging to the N
shifts eastward into the SW North Atlc waters and a cold front is
forecast to impact the northern waters by Friday night with
strong NE winds expected in wake of the front through early
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Northwesterly flow aloft prevails across much of the Caribbean
basin this afternoon between an upper level anticyclone centered
near 16N87W and an upper level trough with axis extending along
67W. Water vapor imagery indicates drier air aloft over the
Greater Antilles and central Caribbean waters...however moisture
associated with the upper level ridging along with a surface
trough analyzed along the Central America coast from southern Belize
to NE Nicaragua to western Panama...is providing focus for widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 08N-15N between 78W-
84W. Much of this convection is enhanced due to the favorable
upper level diffluent environment. Farther east...with the upper
level troughing in place...a frontal trough extends from the
central tropical Atlc near 20N53W SW to near Dominica then
meanders into a 1010 mb low centered near 14N69W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring mainly E of the upper
level trough axis across the eastern Caribbean...including the
Lesser Antilles. The trough is forecast to lift N of the basin and
weaken by Saturday. Lastly...overall moderate to occasional fresh
winds outside of strong convection are occurring across portions
of the central and western Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently NW flow and very dry and and stable conditions aloft
prevail over the island this afternoon. Clear skies and fair
conditions result at the surface across the island and adjacent
coastal waters. Surface high pressure anchored over the SE CONUS is
providing moderate NE winds this afternoon into the evening
hours. This overall synoptic pattern is expected through the
overnight hours into Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 34N71W this
afternoon. Primarily gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
prevailing across the region generally N of 20N W of 57W. This
overall synoptic pattern is supported aloft by a middle to upper
level ridge extending over the eastern Gulf of Mexico N-NE to
over the SE CONUS. Farther east...an upper level trough extends
over the central Atlc with axis extending from 35N56W SW to
28N60W to over the NE Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports the
Special Features low mentioned above. A cold front extends from
N of the discussion area and becomes stationary near 32N50W to
28N52W then becomes a forming cold front W and SW of the Special
Features low to 21N57W. Scattered showers and scattered strong
tstms are occurring from 27N-35N between 43W-51W with scattered
showers and isolated tstms occurring elsewhere N of 19N between
41W-54W. Otherwise...the NE portion of the eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a cold front extending from 32N15W SW to 28N20W
to 26N30W. Possible scattered showers are within 360 nm SE of the
boundary.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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