[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave inland over Africa extends over Ghana moving west
at 10-15 kt.  Satellite imagery shows well defined cyclonic
turning near 08N02W. Surface observations shows this turning is
not at the surface.  Easterly wave diagnostics and well defined
850 mb relative vorticity in Hovmoller time sections confirms
the placement of this feature.  Scattered moderate convection is
mostly west of the wave axis from 04N-10N between 02W-08W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N29W to 01N31W moving west at 15-20
kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is
in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850
mb.  Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 27W-
31W.

Tropical wave extends from 10N46W to 02N50W moving west at 10-15
kt.  The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery.  The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough
and associated positive relative vorticity maximum.  Scattered
moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 06N-09N
between 38W-42W.  Scattered moderate convection is west of the
wave axis from 05N-07N between 49W-54W.

Tropical wave extends from 15N76W to 05N77W moving west at 15-20
kt.  This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen
in a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are inland
over north Colombia from 05N-10N between 73W-78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N19W.  The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to
04N29W.  The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 04N31W and
extends to 03N48W.  The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical
wave at 03N50W and continues to the coast of South America near
03N51W.  Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered showers are within 180 nm south of the ITCZ
between 23W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over South
Florida from 27N80W to the western Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W.
Scattered showers are south of the front over the Straits of
Florida and western Cuba east of 84W.  10-15 kt SE surface flow
is over the remainder of the Gulf.  Further west, scattered
showers are over South Texas and the western Gulf from 26N-29N
between 95W-101W.  In the upper levels, an upper level ridge
axis is over Texas along 100W.  An upper level trough axis is
east of Florida along 77W.  Thus the upper level winds over the
Gulf are from the NW.  Expect within the next 06 hours for the
front to completely dissipate.  Expect in 24 hours for a surface
high to form over the Florida Panhandle with fair weather, while
Texas continues to have showers and thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean and N Colombia.
See above.  The surface pressure gradient over the central and
western Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-25 kt
tradewinds.  Strongest winds are along the coast of N Venezuela.
Scattered moderate convection is over eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and
Hispaniola. Scattered showers remain over Panama and Costa Rica.
Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over the central
Caribbean with axis along 80W enhancing convection.  Expect the
tropical wave to be the dominate feature over Caribbean for the
next 24 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the island.
Expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms for
Tuesday especially during the afternoon and evening hours due to
surface moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N70W to South
Florida at 27N80W.  Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are north of 20N between 68W-76W.  A 1033 mb high is centered
over the central Atlantic near 35N43W.  Farther east, a cold
front extends from 31N15W to 26N26W.  Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front.  Expect in 24 hours for the western
Atlantic cold front to be extend from 31N67W to the central
Bahamas.  Also expect the eastern Atlantic front to move out of
the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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