[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over Africa extends over Ghana moving west at 10-
15 kt.  Satellite imagery shows well defined cyclonic turning
near 08N02W. Surface observations shows this turning is not at
the surface.  Easterly wave diagnostics and well defined 850 mb
relative vorticity in Hovmoller time sections confirms the
placement of this feature.  Scattered moderate convection is
mostly west of the wave axis from 04N-13N between 02W-06W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N28W to 01N29W moving west at 15-20
kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is
in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850
mb. This moisture along with diffluent flow aloft support
isolated showers within 180 nm either side of the wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 09N45W to 02N47W moving west at 10-15
kt.  The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery.  The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough
and associated positive relative vorticity maximum.  Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.  An area of
scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 07N-
09N between 39W-43W.

Tropical wave extends from 15N74W to 06N73W moving west at 15-20
kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection is inland over north
Colombia from 04N-12N between 70W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical
Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N20W.  The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to
04N28W.  The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 04N30W and
extends to 03N27W.  The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical
wave at 03N49W and continues to the coast of South America near
02N50W.  Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the ITCZ between
21W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over South
Florida from 27N80W to the western Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W.
Scattered showers are south of the front over the Straits of
Florida and western Cuba east of 84W.  10-15 kt SE surface flow
is over the remainder of the Gulf.  Further west, scattered
moderate convection is over South Texas and the western Gulf
from 26N-29N between 95W-101W.  In the upper levels, an upper
level ridge axis is over Texas along 100W.  An upper level
trough axis is east of Florida along 77W.  Thus the upper level
winds over the Gulf are from the NW.  Expect within the
next12hours for the front to completely dissipate.  Expect in 24
hours for a surface high to form over the Florida Panhandle with
fair weather, while Texas continues to have showers and
thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean and N Colombia.
See above. The surface pressure gradient over the central and
western Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-25 kt
tradewinds.  Strongest winds are along the coast of N Venezuela.
Scattered moderate convection is over eastern Cuba and
Hispaniola.  Scattered showers remain over Panama and Costa
Rica.  Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over the central
Caribbean with axis along 80W enhancing convection.  Expect the
tropical wave to be the dominate feature over Caribbean for the
next 24 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the island. have
ended over the island. Expect another day of scattered showers
and thunderstorms for Tuesday especially during the afternoon
and evening hours due to surface moisture inflow from the
tropical Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N71W to South
Florida at 27N80W.  Clusters of scattered moderate convection
are north of 20N between 68W-78W.  A 1032 mb high is centered
over the central Atlantic near 35N43W.  Farther east, a cold
front extends from 31N18W to 26N30W.  Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front.  Expect in 24 hours for the western
Atlantic cold front to be extend from 31N68W to the central
Bahamas.  Also expect the eastern Atlantic front to move out
of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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