[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 07N35W to 00N37W moving west at 15
kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery.  A 0010 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass depicted the wave's
wind shifts.  Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave
axis.

Tropical wave extends from 12N50W to 04N51W moving west at 10
kt.  This wave also coincides with the maximum moisture values
seen in a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water
imagery.  A 0014 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted this
wave's wind shifts.  Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the
Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N17W to 05N24W where the ITCZ
begins and then extends to 05N35W.  The ITCZ continues west of a
tropical wave at 03N38W to the coast of South America near
01N50W.  Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between
02W-10W.  Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 03N-08N between 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, A warm front extends from southern Louisiana
near 29N92W to N of Corpus Christi Texas near 29N96W.  The front
is mostly void of precipitation, however radar imagery shows a
small area of showers within 15 nm radius of 28N96W.  10 kt
northerly winds are N of the front. Further east, radar imagery
shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf from 24N-25N between
81W-83W. Elsewhere south of the front 10-15 kt southerly winds
are noted with mostly fair weather.  In the upper levels...an
upper level low is centered over Ohio with a trough axis
extending south to the Florida Panhandle.  Upper level
diffluence east of the trough is enhancing upper level
cloudiness over the far eastern Gulf and Florida.  Expect over
the next 24 hours for a quasi-stationary front to be over the
southern portions of the northern Gulf States with showers. Also
expect over the next 24 hours for the upper level low to shift
east to New England.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea is
relatively tight producing 15-30 kt tradewinds.  Strongest winds
are along the coast of NW Venezuela.  Scattered moderate
convection is inland over SW Guatemala.  Scattered showers
remain over E Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico.  Elsewhere
scattered moderate convection is over Trinidad, while scattered
showers are over the Windward Islands.  In the upper levels, an
upper level high is centered over Belize. Upper level diffluence
SW of the center is enhancing the convection over SW Guatemala.
An upper level trough is over the eastern Caribbean.  Upper
level diffluence SE of the trough is enhancing the convection
over Trinidad.  Expect over the next 24 hours for an increase of
showers over the SE Caribbean.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola supported by surface
moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and a diffluent
environment aloft. These conditions are forecast to persist for
the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are off the Florida coast and over the
northern Bahamas N of 25N and W of 78W due primarily to upper
level diffluence.  Farther east, the tail end of a cold front
extends from 31N59W to 28N71W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the front.  A 1026 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 30N37W with mostly fair weather.  Expect over the
next 24 hours for the cold front to move east to 31N48W with
convection.  Also expect the surface high to move east to
30N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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