[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 07N33W to 00N36W moving west at 10
kt.  The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a broad surge of moisture present in SSMI total precipitable
water imagery.  A 0010 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted
the wind shifts.  Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the
wave axis.

Tropical wave extends from 11N49W to 04N50W moving west at 10
kt.  The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in
a surge of moisture present in SSMI total precipitable water
imagery.  A 0014 UTC ASCT scatterometer pass also depicted the
wind shifts.  Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave
axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N18W to 06N26W where the ITCZ
begins and then extends to 05N33W.  The ITCZ continues west of a
tropical wave at 04N38W to the coast of South America near
01N50W.  Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-04N between
02W-10W, and from 04N-08N between 10W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Louisiana near 29N92W
to Brownsville Texas near 26N97W.  Isolated moderate convection
is within 60 nm of the front.  10 kt northerly winds are N of
the front.  Further east, an outflow boundary is over the NE
Gulf of Mexico and Florida from 31N84W to 27N90W. Isolated
moderate convection is N of 25N E of 90W.  Elsewhere south of
the front and outflow boundary 10-15 kt southerly winds are
noted with mostly fair weather.  In the upper levels...the base
of an upper level trough is over the Mississippi Valley. Upper
level diffluence is east of the trough over the eastern Gulf
enhancing convection. Expect over the next 24 hours for a front
to be over the southern portions of the northern Gulf States
with convection. Also expect over the next 24 hours for the
upper level trough to shift east to New England.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend S-SW across
the northern Caribbean generating a tight pressure gradient that
supports fresh to near gale force winds S of 16N between 68W and
80W, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades
continue in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trades prevail across
the reminder of the basin.  A diffluent environment aloft
between ridging over the western Caribbean and a trough over the
central and eastern basin supports showers along the Cuba
mountain range and over SW Hispaniola.  Another diffluent
environment aloft east of the Eastern Caribbean trough is
producing scattered showers over the Windward Islands.  Expect
over the next 24 hours for an increase of showers over the SE
Caribbean.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are across SW Hispaniola being supported by
surface moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic and a
diffluent environment aloft. These conditions are forecast to
persist for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of a squall line continue to support scattered
showers within 90 NM off the Florida coast S of 29N.  Farther
east, the tail end of a cold front extends from 31N60W to
27N73W.  Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.  A
1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N39W.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front to move east to
31N50W with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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