[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to persist to
near gale force over the next 24 hours near the African coast
for the areas of Agadir and Canarias. Please see the Meteo-
France high seas forecast that is listed under the following
links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or
on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and enters the
east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W to 12N18W where a surface
trough disrupts the flow. The surface trough extends from 11N18W
to 3N19W. The ITCZ extends from 6N21W along 5N28W 2N45W to South
America near 3N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 1N-5N
east of 3W across the Prime Meridian and within 180 NM south of
the ITCZ between 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large upper low is over the E Canada and the NE CONUS but
flattens out north of 33N. This upper low is supporting a cold
front that extends from the west Atlantic across Florida near
Titusville then dips south to Fort Myers into the Gulf of Mexico
to 27N85W where it begins to dissipate as a stationary front
along 29N89W to over Texas near Galveston. Mostly dry air covers
the east Gulf limiting any shower activity with this front. A
shortwave upper trough is inland over Mexico and is inducing an
upper ridge from the Bay of Campeche to the lower Mississippi
Valley. This upper ridge is providing diffluence aloft to
generate scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 22N
west of 92W. The remainder of the Gulf is under clear skies
tonight. The front over the Gulf will dissipate by Monday. High
pressure will then dominated the Gulf through midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low amplitude upper trough covers western Caribbean west of
78W generating scattered showers/thunderstorms within 60 NM of
line from 10N80W to inland over Nicaragua near 12N84W with
clusters of isolated showers/thunderstorms dotting the area from
15N-19N between 78W-85W. An upper ridge anchored east of
Trinidad covers the remainder of the Caribbean drawing upper
moisture from over Central America to across the Dominican
Republic. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms that developed over
Cuba and Hispaniola are beginning to dissipate for the night.
The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies
tonight. A surface ridge will build across the west Atlantic
inducing an increase in the easterly winds across the central
Caribbean through midweek.

HISPANIOLA...

An upper ridge across the Caribbean is advecting upper moisture
across the Dominican Republic tonight. Afternoon showers/
thunderstorms that developed across the island are beginning to
dissipate leaving only isolated showers across the Dominican
Republic. Near zonal westerly flow aloft will move across the
island by early Monday with an upper trough moving across the
island by early Thursday. Lingering moisture will persist
through Monday evening and could generate showers/afternoon
thunderstorms Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large upper low is over the E Canada and the NE CONUS but
flattens out north of 33N. This upper low is supporting a cold
front that extends into the west Atlantic near 32N72W along
31N75W 29N79W to over Florida near Titusville. Isolated showers
are possible within 90 NM east of the front north of 30N. A weak
shortwave upper trough is supporting a surface trough that
extends from 31N66W along 27N70W to the Bahamas near 23N73W.
Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are from 24N-26N
between 71W-73W with isolated showers within 90 nm east of the
remainder of the trough axis. A second weak shortwave upper
trough is supporting a second surface trough that extends from
27N48W along 21N49W to 18N55W. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored well north of the
discussion area. The cold front will continue moving east
through Monday. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front through midweek.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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