[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to temporarily
increase to gale force early tonight near the African coast for
Agadir. Please see the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is
listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises,
Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/
bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and reaches the
coast near 12N17W. A surface trough is off the coast of western
Africa from 12N17W to 02N18w. The intertropical convergence zone
axis extends from 05N20W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near
03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between
15W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is also within 120 NM
north of the ITCZ between 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Ocala, Florida across the
northern Gulf through 28N90W to the Texas coast near 28N96W.
Limited convection is currently associated with the front. A
deep upper level trough is located to the west over the U.S.
Rocky Mountain region. Convection is developing ahead of the
trough over northern Mexico and across Texas, now spreading
eastward into the coastal waters with the area under upper level
diffluence. The cold front will weaken as it moves south-
southeast, dissipating Monday. Overall, fairly benign weather
conditions will continue for the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level trough is across the western Caribbean,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of it across the
basin south of 13N and W of 79W. A 1006 mb low pressure center
is located over northern Colombia near 08N73W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 240 NM of the
low, including across northwest Venezuela. This low combined
with high pressure ridging north-northeast of the basin, is
resulting in a tight pressure gradient across mainly the central
Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades in
this area. The pressure gradient is forecast to continue to
tighten with the area of fresh to strong trades expanding
through the early part of the week, even increasing to near gale
force northwest of the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to
locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin for the next
48 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

A tropical jet is advecting deep tropical moisture across the
island. This plentiful moisture combined with daytime heating is
helping to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the island, however, most of the activity should diminish
after sunset. Similar conditions are likely on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic 32N74W to northern
Florida near 29N81W. Isolated showers are possible ahead of the
front. This front is already weak and it will continue to weaken
as it shifts to the southeast. High pressure is forecast to
build in the wake of the front through the early part of the
week. A surface trough is moving into northern South America
extending from 10N54W to 03N54W. Otherwise high pressure ridging
controls the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
JLewitsky
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