[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW
THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 13/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF... THE
THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN...AGADIR...
TARFAYA...AND CAP BLANC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N17W TO 04N31W...AND 05N34W TO 03N48W. ONE
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 01N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN
20W AND 33W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 38W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR 32N72W...TO NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KEHC...AND KGHB.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...
KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGRY...KATP...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY...IFR IN PORT ISABEL. MVFR FROM
FALFURRIAS TO ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. MVFR IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES...
AND IN CONROE. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT THE SLIDELL AIRPORT.
MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...IFR IN GULF SHORES.
FLORIDA...LIFR IN MILTON...CRESTVIEW...AND DESTIN...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS HAITI TO 16N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 13N77W...AND TO PANAMA ALONG 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N66W 27N72W 22N73W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W
FROM 22N TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 73W...
MOVING NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HAITI. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.23 IN
GUADELOUPE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 11/2300
UTC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 5000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA AT 12/0000 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000
FEET...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT
1600 FEET...MVFR. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE
IS AT 30000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE
IS AT 1700 FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CUTTING
ACROSS HAITI MOSTLY...AND POSSIBLY COVERING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ALSO...DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY DISAPPEARS DURING THE
START OF DAY TWO. EXPECT WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. DAY ONE WILL END WITH VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTIONS. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL
START WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY
WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHEAST...AND THE EAST. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N25W
TO 10N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W
EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N41W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
THE 30N66W 27N72W 22N73W SURFACE TROUGH WESTWARD. A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA
THAT IS NEAR 32N72W...BEYOND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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