[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N16W TO
04N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N32W TO 02N32W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 05N34W TO 03N46W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 00N48W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AGAIN
FROM 03N49W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 10W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE FLOW.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION IS INLAND OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR
14N95W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE CENTER TO BEYOND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N85W. UPPER AIR MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS AND OVER TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE E GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 07N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S COAST OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA
...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM S OF 16N AND E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
IS S OF HAITI NEAR 15N75W. SW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD E OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EASTERLIES.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO BOTH THE TRADEWINDS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N68W TO 27N71W TO
THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 23N66W TO 19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
WITHIN 45 NM OF THIS TROUGH. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N45W WITH FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW S OF HAITI IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-
22N BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH TO MOVE E TO 30N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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