[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N12W TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N17W TO
04N22W 04N28W 02N38W 03N45W...AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 01N...TO 05N16W 06N26W 06N36W 06N45W
06N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
62W WESTWARD...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 84W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 84W
EASTWARD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPAN
THE AREA. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN IN CONROE FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION. VFR/NO
CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES
METROPOLITAN AREA. ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA...AND FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 62W AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W OFF THE
COAST OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 25N62W 20N63W.

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT
TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 5000
FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 6000
FEET...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS
AT 30000 FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE CUTTING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...OR DRIFTING AND
RE-POSITIONING ITSELF JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY
ONE. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FORM HALFWAY THROUGH DAY
ONE AND IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...SENDING
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY
ONE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE MONA PASSAGE. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA WILL START FROM THE SOUTH. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING DAY ONE...FIRST GIVING HISPANIOLA
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN FINALLY WIND FLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND
FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 30N09W...TO THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...28N20W...AND THEN DISSIPATING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 31N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM
22N NORTHWARD FROM 43W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 20N43W TO 10N60W...NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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