[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N15W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N29W 1N36W 2N42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO
AND THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
GIVING THE GULF W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF E OF 87W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
GULF N OF 23N E OF 95W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NW GULF N OF 27N
W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH MON ALLOWING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG SE TO S RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS STRENGTHENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 21N67W ACROSS THE E TIP
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 17N70W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 16N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO/MONA
PASSAGE ALONG 15N71W TO NW COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N TO OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 65W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 11N E OF
78W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS W TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES PRODUCING
FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA MON NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE
ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE ISLAND
TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N67W ACROSS THE E TIP
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BEGIN DRIFTING W AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MON THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 66W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND EXTENDING THE RIDGE ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG
27N63W TO 21N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE E TIP OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SHARP NARROW UPPER
RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 19N61W TO BEYOND 32N54W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NM OF LINE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES
NEAR 18N65W TO BEYOND 32N60W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC
DIPS S TO 24N E OF 30W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS NW AFRICA THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N14W TO
29N27W THEN NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N33W. WEDGE BETWEEN THE
ABOVE FRONTS IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
35N47W. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BEGIN DRIFTING
W AS A SURFACE TROUGH MON THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 29N/30N THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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