[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1031 MB
CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N36W AND A 1008
MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THE GALE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1500 UTC THIS
MORNING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE. SEAS OF 10 TO
15 ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING OVER THIS AREA. SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ZNT02 KNHC OR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/ZNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLC WATERS NEAR 05N17W...WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01N30W TO 02S41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N FROM THE W AFRICA
COAST TO S AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W
TO 29N91W TO 25N96W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM POSITIONING
ALOFT IS AIDING IN DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 94W. OVER THE SW GULF...A THERMALLY
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N91W TO 18N93W...MOVING W
OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY MODERATE SE
WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE
TROUGHING AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE N
AND NE GULF THROUGH TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST BY THIS
EVENING...MOVING TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION PRESENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL AND S
AMERICA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA
COAST. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RELAX BY MON AND THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH
WILL SUPPORT DIMINISHING TRADES.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WINDWARD FACING LOCATIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HIGHER
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET AND STATIONARY FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 75W. A BROAD RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN ATLC...THROUGH THE HIGH CENTER...AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE ATLC S OF 25N...WITH
LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 22N...N OF HISPANIOLA AND
THE MONA PASSAGE...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W...AS
CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N OF THE BAHAMAS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS N OF THE AREA AND THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FL/GA COASTS ON MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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