[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG
1034 MB CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 24N38W AND
A 1007 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST NW OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
LATE TONIGHT...DIMINISHING IN THE LATE MORNING SUN. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SEE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ZNT02 KNHC
OR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/ZNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLC WATERS NEAR 04N18W...WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 02N30W TO 01N42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF 14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW DECAYED INTO A SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI NEAR
29N90W TO 27N94W TO 23N96W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
POSITIONING IS AIDING IN DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF
94W. ADDITIONAL SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NE GULF FROM 29N84W
TO 28N88W IS LIKELY A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE ABUNDANT LIFT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE JET
STREAM. A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N87W
TO 20N93W...MOVING E TO NE OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THIS
TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF BASIN TONIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH NEAR CONVECTION. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE. SURFACE TROUGHING AND CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN TACT OVER THE N AND NE GULF THROUGH TODAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
EMERGE OFF THE TX COAST BY THIS EVENING...MOVING TO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION PRESENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER CENTRAL AND S AMERICA
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING AT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RELAX BY MON AND THROUGH MID
WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT DIMINISHING TRADES.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD LOCATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OF THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WARM FRONT IS POSITIONED JUST N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF
THE GA COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 29N81W TO
26N81W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES...AND AN
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N50W TO NEAR
27N51W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. A BROAD RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N38W EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN ATLC...THROUGH THE HIGH CENTER...AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE ATLC S OF 25N...WITH
LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 22N...N OF HISPANIOLA AND
THE MONA PASSAGE...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W...AS
CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N OF THE BAHAMAS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS N OF THE AREA...AND THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE
FL/GA COASTS ON MONDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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