[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS
SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 TO
13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.
A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES WILL THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF NORTHERN LIBERIA
AFRICA NEAR 06N11W THROUGH THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 03N16W TO
01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N20W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 03S-
08N E OF 27W AND FROM 02S TO 01N W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW TO THE BASIN.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
LOW PRES IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS W OF 90W
...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES E OF 94W. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING AND RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY OFF OF THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
TRAVERSES THE BASIN REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING...THEN
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS SO WILL
ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF
THE FRONT BY FRI MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 23N THROUGH SAT. DENSE FOG IS BEING
REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W WHERE GOES IFR
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS HIGH. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THIS REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES.
OTHERWISE...THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW TSTMS WITHIN
200 NM OFF THE NE COAST OF MEXICO...FROM TAMPICO TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN AND
THE REMAINDER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NW WATERS...LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF FRESH
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N42W TO 26N52W WHERE
IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 24N62W TO 23N72W. HIGH
PRES AT 1030 MB IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 32N57W WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SW N ATLC WATERS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG E FLOW IS S OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS NEARBY THIS REGION ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS ALSO TO THE NE OF THE FRONT
NEAR 30N32W WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT AND RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ATLC
REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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