[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...RIDGING NE OF THE BASIN AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS IS
SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10
TO 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THU
SUNRISE BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL
THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR AT
LEST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR
09N13W THROUGH THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 04N15W TO 01N20W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N20W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 30W TO 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02S-07N E OF 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW TO THE BASIN.
LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRES IS
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS N OF 25.5N W OF
94W...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATES E OF 94W. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY AND RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY OFF OF THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COASTS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
TRAVERSES THE BASIN REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ
MEXICO BY THU EVENING...THEN WILL STALL FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI
EVENING. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS SO WILL ASSOCIATED WINDS WITH ONLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE FRONT BY FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT N OF 23N THROUGH SAT. OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG IS BEING
REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 91W...COINCIDING WITH
GOES IFR HIGH PROBABILITY OF FOG. VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN THIS REGION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN
3 MILES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN AND
THE REMAINDER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NW WATERS...LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL. OTHERWISE...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT
BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N83W TO WESTERN
HONDURAS AND LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN ITS VICINITY
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N45W TO 28N53W WHERE
IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 25N60W TO
24N67W. HIGH PRES AT 1030 MB IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 35N60W WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SW N ATLC. AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE FLOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. RIDGING
AND RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REGION. A 1030 MB HIGH IS ALSO TO THE NE OF
THE FRONT NEAR 31N31W WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net