[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
57W/58W from 12N to inland over South America moving west near
20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
from 7N-10N between 52W-57W.

Tropical wave over the south Caribbean extends along 67W/68W
south of 13N to inland over South America moving west 15 to 20
kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
from 12N-14N between 62W-67W.

Tropical wave over the Yucatan peninsula extends from 22N91W
through a weak 1014 mb low near 19N92W continuing to southwest
Guatemala near 15N92W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the
global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 20N-
22N between 91W-94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N21W to 7N33W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 6N44W to South America near 5N52W. Clusters
of scattered moderate convection are from 5N-11N between 11W-
22W. Clusters of isolated moderate convection are from 5N-9N
between 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cutoff upper low is over north Mexico near 25N101W covering
the Gulf west of 94W. A second smaller cutoff upper low is over
the northeast of Gulf near 26N84W covering the area north of 24N
east of 88W. A large upper ridge is anchored over the Yucatan
peninsula near 21N89W covering the remainder of the Gulf and
into the west Caribbean. These upper features are enhancing the
activity associated with the low/tropical wave and are
generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
south of 24N between 84W-95W. Composite radar indicate isolated
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over the
southeast Gulf south of 26N east of 84W and the northwest Gulf
north of 23N west of 92W. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf
extending from the west Atlantic across central Florida to a
1019 mb high near 28N84W, then continues to southeast Texas.
This is giving the remainder of the Gulf clear skies and
tranquil conditions this morning. Surface ridge will persist
through the weekend. The low/tropical wave will move across the
southwest Gulf today and into Mexico by Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge over the the Yucatan peninsula covers the
Caribbean west of 82W. Scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are over the northwest Caribbean west of 84W. An
upper trough over the west-central Atlantic extends an upper
trough axis across Puerto Rico/Mona Passage into the Caribbean
to near 13N78W and covering the remainder of the Caribbean. An
area of difflunce aloft is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 17N to over the Greater Antilles
between 75W-83W including Jamaica. The monsoon trough extends
from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica along 9N/10N
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of
14N west of 80W to inland over Panama and to the coast of
Nicaragua. Tropical wave will move across the south Caribbean
and South America through the weekend while a second tropical
wave enters the southeast Caribbean later today. Fresh to strong
trade winds will persist across much of the central Caribbean
through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies have cleared across the island this morning. The upper
trough over the east Caribbean coupled with daytime heating will
continue to generate showers and thunderstorms across the island
through the weekend especially in the afternoon and evening
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge is anchored over the north Bahama Islands near
25N78W with a ridge axis extending northeast to beyond Bermuda.
Lingering moisture is generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms south of 25N to the coast of Cuba west of 77W
through the Straits of Florida. A cutoff upper low over the west-
central Atlantic is centered near 27N54W with a trough axis
extending southwest to across Puerto Rico/Mona Passage into the
Caribbean. A remnant surface trough is in the central Atlantic
extending from 31N52W along 25N48W to 20N40W with isolated
showers within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. The
remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge
anchored by a 1035 mb high west-northwest of the Azores and a
ridge axis extending through 32N56W along 28N71W across central
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge will persist
through Sunday when a weak front will move into the northwest
waters.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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