[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
57W/58W from 12N to inland over South America moving west 20 to
25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave over the south Caribbean extends along 67W south
of 13N to inland over South America moving west 20 to 25 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture
as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No
associated deep convection.

Tropical wave over the Yucatan peninsula extends from 23N88W
through a weak 1013 mb low near 18N90W continuing to south
Guatemala near 14N90W moving west-northwest near 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the
global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 23N west of 84W
in the west Caribbean and east of 93W in the Bay of Campeche.
This area of activity is enhanced by upper level features.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N26W to 7N35W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 5N45W to 6N57W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 6N-10N between the coast of Africa
and 20W, from 5N-8N between 30W-36W, and from 6N-10N between 50W-
56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cutoff upper low is over northeast Mexico near 24N100W
covering the Gulf west of 93W. A second smaller cutoff upper low
is over the northeast of Gulf near 27N85W covering the area
north of 25N east of 90W. A large upper ridge is anchored over
the Yucatan peninsula near 21N89W covering the remainder of the
Gulf and into the west Caribbean. These upper features are
enhancing the activity associated with the low/tropical wave
over the Yucatan. A seabreeze surface trough is over Florida
generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
north of 24N east of 83W to inland over Florida. A surface ridge
covers the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across
northeast Florida to a 1019 mb high near 27N85W, then continues
to east Texas. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf clear
skies and tranquil conditions tonight. Surface ridge will
persist through the weekend. The low/tropical wave will move
into the southwest Gulf waters early Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge over the the Yucatan peninsula covers the
Caribbean west of 76W. An upper trough over the west-central
Atlantic covers the remainder of the east Caribbean. An area of
difflunce aloft is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 17N to over the Greater Antilles between
Puerto Rico and east Cuba including Hispaniola, the Windward and
Mona Passages. The monsoon trough extends over Panama just south
of the Caribbean Sea generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 10N west of 80W to inland over Panama to
south Nicaragua. Tropical wave will move across South America
through the weekend and a second tropical wave will enter the
southeast Caribbean Friday. Fresh to strong trade winds will
persist across much of the central Caribbean through the
weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

An area of difflunce aloft is generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the island tonight. The upper trough over
the east Caribbean will continue to generate showers and
thunderstorms across the island through the weekend especially
in the afternoon and evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper ridge is anchored over the north Bahama Islands near
25N78W with a ridge axis extending northeast to beyond Bermuda.
Lingering moisture is generating isolated showers and
thunderstorms from the Bahamas to Cuba between 76W-80W. A cutoff
upper low over the west-central Atlantic is centered near 27N54W
with a trough axis extending west-southwest to across Puerto
Rico into the east Caribbean. A remnant surface trough is in the
central Atlantic extending from 30N51W along 25N46W to 20N42W
with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the trough
axis. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high west-northwest of the Azores
and a ridge axis extending through 32N58W along 29N72W across
northeast Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. The surface ridge
will persist through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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