[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170954
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
554 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The pressure gradient between a central Atlc ridge and lower
pressure across northern South America is generating near gale to
gale force E-NE winds within close proximity to the coast of
Colombia through Friday afternoon. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 04N40W to 12N39W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing noted in global
model fields between 35W-45W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 04N-10N between 36W-42W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N53W to 12N51W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 48W-55W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 49W-54W.

Tropical wave extends from 12N88W to 20N86W moving W-NW at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and
the NW Caribbean Sea between 85W-90W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 16N-22N between 84W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N28W to 07N40W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-10N between 12W-25W...and from 04N-10N between 41W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis
extending from northern Florida near 29N81W SW to over the SW
Gulf near 19N94W and an upper level ridge axis extends over the
western Gulf waters from an upper level anticyclone anchored over
NW Mexico near 27N106W. Between these features primarily northerly
winds aloft prevail that promote overall stability for the basin
this morning. Otherwise...a surface ridge extending from across
Cuba to the Texas/Louisiana coasts is maintaining gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds. This overall synoptic pattern is
expected to persist through Friday night. Thereafter...an area of
low pressure is expected to develop offshore of the Carolinas
Saturday draping a frontal boundary along 30N E of 90W that pushes
southward then eastward through Sunday night across much of the
Florida peninsula. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are expected early
next week as high pressure anchors itself across the SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 14N82W providing an overall diffluent environment generally
W of 78W. Beneath this upper level feature...a tropical wave is
analyzed along 87W that continues to support low-level moisture
convergence and widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from
09N-22N W of 80W...including inland portions of Central America
and southern Mexico. Farther east...an upper level low is
anchored over Hispaniola near 18N69W...however water vapor
imagery indicates a fairly dry and stable environment across much
of the central and eastern Caribbean. Fair skies prevail as a
result with generally moderate to strong trades expected through
the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently skies are fair with tranquil conditions expected
through the day on Friday. An upper level low is centered over the
island...however is accompanied by dry air and a relatively stable
environment.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted over the SW North
Atlc region this evening that supports increased cloudiness and a
few isolated showers in the vicinity of the NW Bahamas. However...
the prevailing surface feature is a weak ridge axis extending from
the central Atlc near 23N54W westward to across Cuba and into the
central and NW Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is expected to slowly
erode away through Saturday night as an area of low pressure is
expected to develop off the coast of the Carolinas and bring
strong NE winds north and west of the low center through Sunday
night late. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028
mb high centered across the Azores near 38N26W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net