[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The pressure gradient between a central Atlc ridge and lower
pressure across northern South America are expected to generate
near gale to gale force E-NE winds within close proximity to the
coast of Colombia this evening into Friday morning. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 03N36W to 10N35W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing noted in global
model fields between 31W-43W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 03N-10N between 34W-39W.

Tropical wave extends from 05N52W to 11N51W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad
700 mb troughing between 43W-52W. No significant deep convection
is associated with the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 11N87W to 19N85W moving W-NW at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over Central America and
the NW Caribbean Sea between 83W-90W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 09N-20N between 80W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
08N20W to 08N26W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 08N26W to 08N36W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 05N-10N between 11W-21W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis
extending from northern Florida near 28N82W SW to over the SW
Gulf near 19N94W and an upper level ridge axis extends over the
western Gulf waters from an upper level anticyclone anchored over
NW Mexico near 26N106W. Between these features primarily north-
northeasterly winds aloft prevail that promote overall stability
for the basin this evening. Otherwise...a surface ridge extending
from the SW North Atlc near 24N80W to a 1026 mb high centered near
27N91W is maintaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. This
overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Friday
night. Thereafter...an area of low pressure is expected to develop
offshore of the Carolinas Saturday draping a frontal boundary
along 30N E of 90W that pushes southward then eastward through
Sunday night across much of the Florida peninsula. Moderate to
fresh E-SE winds are expected early next week as high pressure
anchors itself across the SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 15N82W providing an overall diffluent environment generally W
of 78W. Beneath this upper level feature...a tropical wave is
analyzed along 86W that continues to support low-level moisture
convergence and widely scattered showers and tstms from 09N-21N W
of 79W...including inland portions of Central America and the
Yucatan peninsula. Farther east...an upper level low is anchored
over Hispaniola near 19N70W...however water vapor imagery
indicates a fairly dry and stable environment across much of the
central and eastern Caribbean. Fair skies prevail with generally
moderate to strong trades expected through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently skies are fair with tranquil conditions expected
through the day on Friday. An upper level low is centered over the
island however is accompanied by dry air and a relative stable
environment.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted over the SW North
Atlc region this evening that supports increased cloudiness and a
few isolated showers N of 23N W of 74W. However...the prevailing
surface feature is a weak ridge axis extending from the central
Atlc near 23N55W to across the Florida Straits and into the NW
Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is expected to slowly erode away
through Saturday night as an area of low pressure is expected to
develop off the coast of the Carolinas and bring strong north and
west of the low center through Sunday night late. Otherwise...the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered south of
the Azores near 37N29W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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