[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic with axis
along 18W south of 11N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a
large area of low level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW
imagery. The wave is also well depicted from the surface through
700 mb levels. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N
between 17W-23W.

A tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
along 40W from 01N to 10N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is
embedded in a large moist environment as noted by SSMI composite
TPW imagery. The wave is also well depicted at the 700 mb level.
No associated convection is noted at this time.

A tropical wave is inland over South America with axis along 62W
from 02N to 10N, moving W at 20 kt. The wave has low amplitude
and is embedded in a moderate moist environment. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along
78W from 06N to 15N, moving WNW at 20 kt. The wave is in a large
area of low level moisture as noted on SSMI composite TPW
imagery. The wave is also well depicted from the surface through
700 mb levels. Scattered moderate convection is near Jamaica
from 17N-19N between 77W-80W. Scattered moderate convection is
over the central Caribbean from 12N-14N between 75W-79W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Panama
from 06N-11N between 78W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
05N18W to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 06N40W to the
coast of South America near 05N52W. There is no additional
convection outside of the tropical waves.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near
26N86W. 5-15 kt anticyclonic surface flow is over the Gulf with
strongest winds over the western Gulf. A surface trough extends
over the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N89W to 17N91W. Scattered
moderate convection is inland over S Louisiana, S Mississippi,
and Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the whole island of Cuba. In the upper levels, an upper
level high is centered over N Mexico at 27N102W. A diffluent
environment is over the north central Gulf. Expect over the next
24 hours for the surface high to remain over the Gulf. Also
expect the area of upper level diffluence and associated
convection to shift further east to the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. 10-25
kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with
strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is over the whole island of Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola. Further south,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over NW
Venezuela, and north Colombia. Elsewhere, scattered moderate
convection is over Honduras, and S Nicaragua. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move WNW with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered moderate convection is over the higher
elevations of Hispaniola due in part to upper level diffluence.
Expect a decrease in convection over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has dipped over the western Atlantic from 31N63W to
29N70W to 30N76W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. A 1029 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near
36N34W. Of note in the upper levels, the base of a very large
upper level trough is over the western Atlantic north of 25N
between 50W-70W with scattered moderate convection from 24N-29N
between 55W-60W. Expect the cold front to move east to 31N55W in
24 hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
FORMOSA
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