[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS
National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
16W/17W from 2N-9N moving west near 5 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models
and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate/isolated strong
convection is from the monsoon trough to 9N between 15W-19W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
11N37W to 5N41W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the global models
and a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave is inland over South America along 60W moving west
near 25 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the western Caribbean extends along 76W south
of 14N to inland over Colombia moving west near 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in the
global models and is embedded within a broad area of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated
deep convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 6N17W to 5N28W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to east of the wave near 6N39W then resumes west
of the wave near 7N42W then into South America near 5N52W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 4N-7N
between 19W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge extends across Mexico and east Texas to the
middle Mississippi Valley covering the Gulf west of 87W. An
upper trough extends from the southwest Atlantic across the
Florida Keys to over the remainder of the east Gulf. This is
providing difflunce aloft to generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms within 120 nm of line from 25N85W to over the
north Gulf coast near Mobile, Alabama. A weak surface ridge axis
extends from the west Atlantic across south Florida and the
Straits of Florida through a 1016 mb high near 25N84W to the
Texas coast near Corpus Christi. The surface ridge will persist
through Friday. Fresh northeast to north winds are expected along
the northwest coast of the west Yucatan peninsula each evening
through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper ridge is anchored over the Caribbean near 15N75W. The
upper trough over the southwest Atlantic is providing diffluence
aloft and coupled with a surface trough that extends from the
coast of Cuba near 23N83W to 19N84W are generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms from 19N to over Cuba between
75W-83W. The monsoon trough extends across the southwest
Caribbean from 9N75W along 10N80W then across Costa Rica near
10N84W into the east Pacific region. This is generating
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms south
of 13N to across Panama between the 75W-80W with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 13N west of 80W to
the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. This is leaving the
remainder of the Caribbean with clear skies this afternoon.
Strong trade winds across the central Caribbean will expand
northwest to just south of Jamaica by early Wednesday and
persist through Thursday. Strong east winds will develop on
Thursday across the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave will
move inland over Central America Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are rather clear across the island this afternoon.
Moisture will be limited across the island through Wednesday
afternoon, then increase over the Dominican Republic and spread
west by Thursday night. This will limit showers/thunderstorms
to primarily isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper high is over the west Atlantic near 29N75W covering the
area north of 26N between 70W-80W. A broad upper trough is over
the west-central Atlantic north of 30N supporting a cold front
that enters the region near 32N64W and extends to 30N76W. This
front is embedded within an area of limited moisture. Thus, no
showers area associated with this front. A narrow upper trough
extends from the broader upper trough near 30N62W along 26N70W
south of the upper ridge along 24N80w and into the east Gulf of
Mexico. This is generating scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms within 45/60 nm of line from 25N69W to
beyond 32N58W with isolated showers and thunderstorms from 21N-
25N between 73W-78W. An area of scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms, due to upper level diffluence, is
from 23N-28N between 58W-63W. The remainder of the Atlantic is
dominated by a surface ridge that is anchored by a 1029 mb high
near 35N33W and extending a ridge axis through 32N43W along
23N65W then across south Floria over the Gulf of Mexico. Surface
ridge will persist through the week. The west Atlantic cold
front will stall today west of 70W and lift back north of the
area tonight. The remainder of the front will stall from 31N65W
to 31N72W tonight and lose it's identity on Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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