[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0205 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across western Africa with axis
extending from 14N02W to 01N03W, moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 02W-08W and a
surge of moisture surrounds the wave as noted on TPW imagery. No
significant convection is observed at this time with this wave.

A tropical wave is across the central tropical Atlantic
with axis extending from 12N27W to 00N27W, moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 24W-31W.
It is likely this wave will remain low-latitude the next several
days as it moves west across the tropical Atlantic. Isolated
showers are in the vicinity of the wave's axis but it is related
to the proximity of the monsoon trough.

Another low-latitude tropical wave extends its axis from 12N52W
to 00N55W, moving W at 20 kt. The classic inverted V pattern can
be observed with this wave on Visible/IR imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is observed along the northern portion of the
wave mainly north of 08N between 52W-58W.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 16N83W into the EPAC near
03N82W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb
troughing between 75W-85W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails in the vicinity of the wave between 76W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
05N33W. The ITCZ extends from 05N33W to 02N50W. Isolated
convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of both
boundaries mainly east of 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface ridge that is centered over the west Atlantic and
eastern CONUS extends across the Gulf waters. With this, a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin.
An area of scattered moderate to strong convection is observed
west of the Yucatan peninsula affecting the Bay of Campeche
mainly south of 23N. Another area of lighter convection is
observed across the Florida Straits which is moving north from
Cuba and the northwest Caribbean waters. Expect for a similar
weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with considerable convection is over the SW
Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for more details.
To the north of this feature, an upper-level low centered near
18N82W is supporting convection between 77W-85W affecting Cuba
and the SE Gulf waters. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades prevailing across the basin, with strongest winds
along the coast of north Colombia. Expect during the next 24
hours for SW Caribbean tropical wave to move into the EPAC with
convection. Expect an increase of tropical moisture across the
Windward Islands with the approach of the next tropical wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Isolated
convection is expected to develop in the afternoon hours due to
daytime heating/orographic lifting.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb surface high is centered over the western Atlantic
near 30N75W. South of this feature, a cold front extends from
25N77W to 29N67W to a 1015 mb low centered near 30N61W then to
31N57W. Isolated convection prevails along the front and low. A
surface ridge dominates the remainder of the basin anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 30N37W. Two tropical waves are moving
across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details.
Expect for the front to move east while weakening during the
next 24 hours. The tropical waves will continue moving west with
convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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