[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0805 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave extends from 13N00W to 01N00W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 03E-02W and 850
mb relative vorticity maximum along the wave axis near 10N.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the axis south of 06N.

Tropical wave extends from 11N22W to 01N23W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 17W-24W
that has been noted the last few days on long-term IR satellite
imagery across the African continent. It is likely this wave
will remain low-latitude the next several days as it moves west
across the tropical Atlantic. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the axis south of 06N.

Tropical wave extends from 12N50W to 01N52W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides somewhat with 700 mb troughing east of the
Lesser Antilles along 57W. Recent ASCAT imagery suggests gentle
to moderate cyclonic surface winds generally N of 08N. Isolated
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the axis south of 07N.

Tropical wave extends from 16N82W to 05N82W over the SW
Caribbean moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb
troughing between 80W-84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean and Central America from 05N-
16N between 79W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
10N21W to 05N33W. The ITCZ extends from 05N33W to 03N44W to the
coast of South America near 04N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-09N between 13W-16W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 04N-08N between 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near
30N75W. A ridge axis extends west to eastern Texas near 30N93W
producing mostly 5-10 kt SE surface flow. An embedded 1016 mb
low is centered north of the Bahamas near 28N78W. A surface
trough extends west across Florida to the eastern Gulf of Mexico
near 27N86W. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are over Florida and the eastern Gulf east of 86W.
Further south, low level convergence is producing scattered
moderate to strong convection over most of Cuba. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate to strong convection is over southern Mexico
and along the coasts of the Bay of Campeche. In the upper
levels...a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Expect in
24 hours for a small surface high to develop near Tampa Florida
with mostly southerly surface flow elsewhere over the Gulf of
Mexico. Considerable tropical

Broad middle to upper level troughing is across much of the
western North Atlc that supports a stationary front analyzed into
the discussion area near 32N58W and extends W-SW to a 1016 mb low
near 29N70W to 27N75 to a 1016 mb low near 28N80W and across the
central Florida peninsula. Scattered showers and widely scattered
tstms are occurring across the NW Bahamas and adjacent coastal
waters from 23N-28N between 75W-80W. Elsewhere...isolated showers
are occurring within 180 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...
the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge with axis along 22N extending from the central Atlc
to central Cuba. Finally...ridging prevails across the central
and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N36W.
One exception to the ridge is a weak 1021 mb low centered near
30N28W. The low is expected to dissipate during the next 12-24
hours. moisture will remain over the
southern and eastern Gulf to include Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with considerable convection is over the SW
Caribbean. See above. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the remainder
of the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of north
Colombia. In the upper levels, a large upper level low is
centered south of the Cayman Islands near 17N82W enhancing the
convection over the western Caribbean. Further east, strong
subsidence is over the eastern Caribbean east of 73W. Expect
over the next 24 hours for SW Caribbean tropical wave to move
west with convection. Also expect an increase of tropical
moisture into the Windward Islands with the approach of the
next tropical wave.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad middle to upper level troughing is across much of the
western North Atlc that supports a stationary front analyzed into
the discussion area near 32N58W and extends W-SW to a 1016 mb low
near 29N70W to 27N75 to a 1016 mb low near 28N80W and across the
central Florida peninsula. Scattered showers and widely scattered
tstms are occurring across the NW Bahamas and adjacent coastal
waters from 23N-28N between 75W-80W. Elsewhere...isolated showers
are occurring within 180 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...
the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge with axis along 22N extending from the central Atlc
to central Cuba. Finally...ridging prevails across the central
and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N36W.
One exception to the ridge is a weak 1021 mb low centered near
30N28W. The low is expected to dissipate during the next 12-24
hours.

Scattered moderate convection is presently over
Haiti. This is basically an extension of all the convection over
Cuba. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N75W.
An embedded 1016 mb low is centered north of the Bahamas near
28N78W. Further east, a stationary front is over the central
Atlantic from 31N57W to to a 1015 mb low near 30N65W. A cold
front extends southwest from the low to the northern Bahamas
near 25N76W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bahamas
from 24N-28N between 74W-78W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the remainder of the fronts. A 1025 mb high is
centered over the eastern Atlantic near 30N37W. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level trough is over the western Atlantic
north of 25N between 60W-80W supporting the surface features.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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