[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101209
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT FRI 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 21W
from 3N-10N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave
coincides with a low amplitude 700 mb trough based on GFS model
and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
47W/48W from 4N-11N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave trails a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and
is embedded within a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 8N-11N between 45W-48W.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 80W from 15N to
across Panama moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and
is embedded within a large surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
to strong convection are south of 12N between 75W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W along 10N22W to 5N30W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 4N34W 5N41W to South America near 3N51W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 5N-7N
east of 15W to the coast of Sierra Leone, Africa. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of line from 4N23W to 6N30W
and within 60 nm of line from 9N48W to 7N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough over the northwest Atlantic is supporting a
stationary front that extends through the west Atlantic across
the Florida panhandle. A remnant surface trough is over the
northwest Gulf extending from 29N92W to 26N96W. Isolated showers
are north of 25N west of 90W to inland over the coast of
Louisiana and Texas. An upper ridge anchored over the north
coast of Yucatan extends over the southeast Gulf, across south
Florida and into the west Atlantic giving most of the Gulf
southwest flow aloft. A diurnal surface trough extends from
22N90W along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula to over
south Mexico near 18N92W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are south of 20N across the entire Bay of
Campeche. Scattered showers are possible over the southeast Gulf
from 23N-27N east of 87W to over Florida. A high pressure will
develop over the northeast Gulf on Saturday night then shift
southwest to over the central Gulf on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper ridge anchored over the southeast Gulf of Mexico
covers the Caribbean west of 84W. An elongated upper low is
centered in the central Caribbean near 17N79W and extends a
trough axis north over central Cuba to near 22N80W and south to
12N79W with a surface trough extending from the Bahamas near
23N75W across Cuba to near 19N79W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are from 17N-20N between 80W-81W.
Isolated showers are possible from 12N-18N between 75W-81W.
Clear skies are across the east Caribbean east of 73W. The
tropical wave will move across the southwest Caribbean tonight
then move inland across Central America Saturday. A second
tropical wave will enter the Caribbean Sunday. Strong trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean will spread west across
the southwest Caribbean on Saturday. Near gale force winds are
expected along the northwest coast of Colombia tonight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are across the southwest peninsula of Haiti
this morning. These showers will move west of the island later
this morning giving way to clearer skies for today. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a
cold front north of the area and a stationary front from 32N60W
along 31N67W through a weak 1015 mb low near 29N72W then
continues over the Florida Panhandle just south of the Georgia
border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south
of the front to a line from Cuba near 23N79W along 26N69W to
beyond 32N55W. The upper ridge anchored over the north coast of
the Yucatan extends into the west Atlantic over south Florida
and the Straits of Florida to 25N76W covering the area south of
27N east of 76W. A surface trough, previously the north portion
of the Caribbean tropical wave, extends from the Bahamas near
23N75W across Cuba to near 19N79W. A remnant surface trough is
in the east Atlantic extending through 32N25W to 25N31W. A weak
surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored
by a 1024 mb high near 29N37W. The west Atlantic 1015 mb low
will move into the central Atlantic dragging the front southeast
again as a cold front. This weak front will stall from 32N52W
along 25N65W to the Windward Passage late Saturday. A surface
high will develop near 31N77W tonight and shift east to 31N73W
on Saturday night, then lose identity in a ridge that will
building from east to west along 24N65W to northeast Florida on
Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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