[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT FRI 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
19W/20W from 3N-12N moving west near 15 kt over the past 12
hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS
model and a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total
Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along
45W/46W from 3N-11N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave trails a broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model and
is embedded within a weak surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 78W/79W from
Jamaica to Panama moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough based on GFS model
and is embedded within a large surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 11N-13N between 77W-82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa to the coast near
10N14W then resumes west of the eastern most tropical wave near
5N21W to 5N28W where the ITCZ begins and continues to east of
the next tropical wave near 5N42W then resumes west of that wave
near 6N48W to South America near 5N53W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 60/75 nm of line from 8N44W to
7N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 225 nm north of
the monsoon trough between 24W-27W, within 90 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 22W-27W, and north of 4N to inland over
southwest Africa between 1W-6W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper trough over the northwest Atlantic is supporting a
stationary front that extends through the west Atlantic across
the Florida panhandle. A remnant surface trough is over the
northwest Gulf extending from 29N92W to 26N95W. An upper ridge
anchored over northeast Yucatan extends over the southeast Gulf,
across south Florida and into the west Atlantic giving most of
the Gulf southwest flow aloft. A diurnal surface trough extends
from 22N87W inland over the Yucatan peninsula to south Guatemala.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are inland and
within 60 nm along the coast of the Yucatan between 89W-93W.
Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms persist
over the southeast Gulf from 22N-28N east of 88W to over Florida
and Cuba. Weak pressure pattern will prevail across the basin
through the Sunday when a high pressure will develop over the
north-central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper ridge anchored over northeast Yucatan covers the
Caribbean west of 84W. An elongated upper low is centered in the
central Caribbean near 17N79W and extends a trough axis north
over Cuba and south to 10N80W with a surface trough extending
from the Bahamas near 23N75W across east Cuba to west Jamaica
near 18N78W. Isolated showers are possible north of 19N between
78W-84W and from 15N-20N between 72W-77W. Clear skies are across
the east Caribbean east of 70W. Fresh to occasionally strong
east winds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the
Gulf of Honduras through Sunday. The tropical wave will move
across the west Caribbean tonight then move inland across
Central America this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are across portions of Haiti tonight. These
showers will move west of the island later this morning giving
way to clearer skies for Friday. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms remain a possibility through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a
cold front that extends through 32N58W to 31N65w where it
becomes stationary through a weak 1015 mb low near 29N73W then
continues over the Florida Panhandle just south of the Georgia
border. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
are south of the front to a line from Cuba near 23N80W along
26N72W to beyond 32N57W. The upper ridge anchored over northeast
Yucatan extends into the west Atlantic over south Florida and
the Straits of Florida to 26N74W covering the area south of 26N
east of 70W. A surface trough, previously the north portion of
the Caribbean tropical wave, extends from the Bahamas near
23N75W across east Cuba to west Jamaica. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible from the Bahamas to Cuba between 76W-
80W. A remnant surface trough is in the east Atlantic extending
through 32N26W along 24N34W to 21N48W. A weak surface ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb
high east of the above surface trough near 29N24W and west of
the trough by a 1025 mb high near 29N37W. Fresh southwest winds
ahead of the west Atlantic front will shift east into the
central Atlantic overnight. A surface ridge will dominate the
west Atlantic through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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