[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sat JUN 04 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.6N 66.4W at
04/1500 UTC or about 212 NM NNW of Bermuda, moving east at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 80 NM of center over the eastern
semicircle. Bonnie will continue weakening over the next 48
hours. See the latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

An area of widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the
western Caribbean is becoming organized as a tropical wave
moves through the area. A low pressure system is expected to
form in association with this disturbed weather near the Yucatan
Peninsula or the adjacent waters and move northward during the
next 24-48 hours. The low is likely to develop into a tropical
cyclone as it moves northeastward across the central and eastern
Gulf of Mexico early next week. Due to this, the system has a
high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next
several days. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 12N45W to 06N48W. This wave is moving west at about 15 to
20 kt during the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad
700 mb trough based on GFS model, a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery, and it is clearly
seen on satellite imagery as an inverted trough. Scattered
moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the wave and
the ITCZ from 06N-12N between 43W-49W.

A tropical wave extends across western Colombia and into the
EPAC with axis from 10N77W to 04N78W. This wave has moved west
at around 15 to 20 kt during the past 24 hours. The position was
based on a broad 700 mb trough depicted by the GFS model. No
associated deep convection is observed.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the tropical
Atlantic near 16N16W to 10N21W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 06N36W into the South America coast near 05N52W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the
ITCZ and a tropical wave from 04N-09N between 32W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered low is centered over southern Texas, with a 1009
mb surface low near 28N97W. A squall line precedes the surface
low extending from 27N99W to 30N94W. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms prevail across the NW Gulf waters mainly north of
25N and west of 92W. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft
supports isolated moderate convection north of 26N between 87W-
89W. Surface ridging dominates the far east Gulf and Florida
Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts a southeasterly flow
across the western half of the basin while a southwesterly flow
prevails east of 87W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
surface low across the NW Gulf to move south with convection.
Another low pressure will develop over the southwest Caribbean
and move north affecting the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent
waters within the next 48 hours. This feature has a high chance
for tropical development during that time also. Please refer to
the Special Features section for more details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave extends across the west Caribbean. Please refer
to the section above for details. This feature combined with a
diffluent flow aloft are supporting scattered moderate
convection over the western portion of the basin mainly west of
77W. Surface ridging dominates the remainder of the basin with
isolated quick moving showers transported by the moderate to
fresh trades. Expect during the next 24 hours for a surface low
to develop over the west Caribbean in the vicinity of the
tropical wave. This feature has a high chance for tropical
development during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the
Special Features section for more details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are observed north of the island as a surface
trough prevails over the western Atlantic. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected today through early next week
across the area due to daytime heating and orographic lifting.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb surface high is centered over the west Atlantic near
29N74W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 22N71W to
29N67W. Scattered moderate convection prevails east of the
trough between 64W-70W supported by diffluent flow aloft. A
tropical wave is moving west across the central Atlantic. Please
see the section above for details. Surface ridging dominates the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1023 high near 28N47W and a
1021 mb high near 29N23W. Expect for a similar weather pattern
to prevail during the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA
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