[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat JUN 04 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 35.9N 68.2W at 04/0900
UTC or about 360 nm east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and
about 273 nm northwest of Bermuda moving east at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm of center over the northeast
quadrant. Bonnie is expected to weaken soon. See latest
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

Broad area of showers and thunderstorms is in the northwestern
Caribbean and is associated with the tropical wave that extends
from 18N85W across northwest Honduras, central Nicaragua, and
western Costa Rica to 9N85W. A low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters by tomorrow then
deepen as it moves northward. Gale force winds are possible in
the Gulf of Mexico east of 85W Sunday night. This system has a
high chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba
and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
Currently, scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are in the
Caribbean from 11N-20N between 77W-86W. Please see the Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave inland over Africa extends along 8W from 4N-10N
moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a weak 700 mb trough based on GFS model and a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 44W
from 5N-14N moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with broad 700 mb trough based on GFS model, a surge
of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
imagery, and is clearly seen on satellite imagery as an inverted
trough. Any convection is associated with the ITCZ and not the
wave itself.

Tropical wave inland over western Colombia, South America
extends from 11N75W to 2N77W moving west 15 to 20 kt. Wave has
been tracked over the last couple of days on satellite imagery
as an inverted trough across the South America and the location
is based on persistent westerly motion. No associated deep
convection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W along 13N19W to 9N23W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 5N33W to east of the tropical wave near
6N43W then resumes west of the wave near 6N47W into South
America near 5N52W. Clusters of scattered moderate/isolated
strong convection are within 120 nm along the coast of west
Africa south of 7N west of 10W, within 150 nm south of the ITCZ
between 30W-40W, within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-38W,
within 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-49W, and within 150
nm north of the ITCZ between 50W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layered low is centered over Texas with a 1009 mb surface
low near 29N97W. This large upper low covers the Gulf west of
87W. A narrow upper ridge extends from the Caribbean across Cuba
and the Florida peninsula covering the remainder of the Gulf.
A surface trough extends offshore from 29N95W to across south
Texas near 27N97W. Numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms are
west of the trough to inland over Texas with scattered showers/
isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm southeast of the trough west
of 95W to the coast of Texas. The diffluent environment between
the upper features is generating scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms north of 23N to inland over the north Gulf coast
between 85W-94W. A weak surface ridge extends from the west
Atlantic to over the Florida peninsula. Lingering isolated
showers/thunderstorms are over the southwest Gulf from 20N-22N
between 94W-96W. A low pressure area is expected to form over
the Yucatan or the adjacent waters tonight then deepen as it
moves across the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday
with gale force winds possible east of 85W Sunday night and
Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge is anchored over the western Caribbean near
12N75W and extends into the west Atlantic covering the far east
Gulf of Mexico. This is creating a diffluent environment over
the north-central Caribbean generating the activity described in
the special features section above. The easterly trade winds are
generating isolated showers/thunderstorms over the east
Caribbean east of 67W to over the Lesser Antilles. A low
pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan or the
adjacent waters tonight then deepen as it moves across the
Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Strong southeast
winds are expected east of the low in the northwest Caribbean
tonight as the system develops. Fresh to occasionally strong
trade winds are across the south-central Caribbean along the
coast of Colombia and Venezuela through the weekend into next
week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies have cleared across the island this morning with isolated
showers remaining off the north shore. This scenario of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge over the Caribbean extends a narrow ridge axis
across east Cuba and then the Florida peninsula to the North
Carolina coast. An upper trough covers the remainder of the west
Atlantic north of 26N between 66W-77W. These upper features are
generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 19N-26N
between 64W-72W and north of 26N between 62W-67W with isolated
showers between the Bahamas and Cuba from 72W-80W. A weak
surface trough extends from 27N74W across the southern Bahamas
to near 22N75W. A large upper low covers the Atlantic north of
30N and extends a broad upper trough into the central Atlantic
near 30N36W along 20N48W to the Lesser Antilles near 12N62W. The
broad upper trough is supporting a cold front just north of the
discussion area. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic to over the Florida peninsula with a 1020 mb high in
the east Atlantic near 30N24W, a 1022 mb high in the central
Atlantic near 28N49W, and a weak 1019 mb high in the west
Atlantic near 30N72W. This broad surface ridge will retreat
eastward as the expected low pressure moves across the east Gulf
of Mexico. This low will move off northeast Florida into the
west Atlantic Monday night and may induce gale force winds over
the northwest waters Tuesday and Tuesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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