[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.7N 74.3W at
03/0300 UTC or about 65 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 34N-36N W of 74W. See
latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave is in the central tropical Atlantic with axis along
35W from 5N-12N moving W at 15 kt in the last 24 hours. The wave
coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W and a
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb that
enhances isolated showers within 90 nm either side of the wave axis.

Tropical wave is inland Venezuela along 67W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave has been trackable the last several days across the
tropical Atlc and location is based on persistent motion, low-
level global model streamline analysis and CIRA layer precipitable
water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the
southern wave environment over eastern Colombia, central Venezuelaand
NW Brazil.

Tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis along 81W S of 17N moving
W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with a broad cyclonic mid-level
circulation, with 700 mb troughing and 850 mb relative vorticity.
Abundant moisture in the region along with a diffluent environment
aloft support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms N of 14N
between 75W and 82W and S of 14N between 73W and 77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 05N36W to 01N50W. Besides
convection associated with the tropical wave above...scattered
moderate convection is from 2N-7N between 16W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low centered over Texas continue to
support a broad area of low pressure across Texas focused on a
1008 mb low near 32N96W from which a stationary front extends SW
to over NE Mexico. Ahead of the front, a squall line extends from
25N96W to 23N98W and generates heavy showers and thunderstorms
from 22N-26N W of 95W. A surface trough extends from southern LA
near 29N91W to 26N93W supporting scattered showers in the NW Gulf
N of 25N W of 92W. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong SE
winds ahead of the squall line. The remainder basin is under the
influence of gentle to moderate E-SE winds. The middle to upper
level low is expected to drift east over eastern Texas through
Friday night then move S-SW over northern Mexico providing the NW
Gulf with increased chances of precipitation through the upcoming
weekend. Global models indicate an area of developing low pressure
across the Gulf of Honduras to move across the Yucatan peninsula
Sunday and into the south-central Gulf waters Sunday night into
early Monday...reaching the NE Gulf by early Tuesday. Likely
hazards from this potential area of low pressure will be increased
winds and building seas across the central and E Gulf waters...in
addition to the likelihood of heavy rainfall and possible flooding
across central and northern Florida early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The main feature in the basin is a tropical wave
moving across the SW waters discussed in more details in the
tropical waves section. An upper trough over the SW N Atlantic
with base near the Windward passage and a broad ridge anchored N
of Colombia promote a diffluent and unstable environment across
the SW, central and portions of NW Caribbean. Given the favorable
lifting dynamics and the presence of the tropical wave, scattered
heavy showers and tstms are occurring N of 14N between 75W and 82W
and S of 14N between 73W and 77W. Isolated showers are occurring
elsewhere E of 74W. Strong high pres NE of the Caribbean tightens
the gradient and support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern
basin and fresh to strong S of 18N E of the tropical wave axis to
66W. The area of fresh to strong trades are expected to expand and
drift W-NW as the tropical wave continues to its westward path and
a low pres forms over the weekend N of Honduras. Strong to near
gale force SE winds will accompany this low pressure area on its
eastern periphery and impact the NW Caribbean waters and Yucatan
Channel region.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently scattered showers are occurring across the island and
adjacent coastal waters due to the base of an upper level trough
over the Windward passage generating diffluence aloft and low-
level instability associated with a surface trough along 72W. The
troughing will lift north of the island Friday night and a general
improving trend in conditions is expected as NW flow aloft will
persist Saturday and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The SW North Atlc is under the influence of a
middle to upper level trough with axis along 73W. The base of the
trough is over the Windward passage with diffluence flow aloft
noted east of the trough axis to 62W. Scattered showers are
occurring S of 26N between 66W and 72W and in the Great Bahama
Bank. Otherwise...the remainder of the region is under the
influence of a surface ridge extending from a pair of 1025 mb
highs, one centered near 30N56W and other near 29N48W. The upper
level troughing will move E of 60W by early next week as an upper
level ridge anchored in the NW Caribbean Sea south of Cuba will
build over the waters W of 65W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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