[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
746 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 35.4N 74.8W at
02/2100 UTC or about 35 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 35N-38N between 74W-77W. See
latest forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 01N33W to 10N31W moving W at 10 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W
with scattered moderate convection occurring primarily west of the
wave axis from 06N-10N between 27W-32W.

Tropical wave extends across inland Venezuela from 02N64W to
09N63W moving W at 20 kt. The wave has been trackable the last
several days across the tropical Atlc and location is based on
persistent motion and current low-level global model streamline
analysis. Convection appears considerably less than in past
days...with only isolated moderate convection occurring across
Venezuela E of 67W this evening.

Tropical wave extends from 04N77W to 14N76W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave is embedded within the broad cyclonic low-level
circulation surrounding northern Colombia with 700 mb troughing
and 850 mb relative vorticity focused across the SW Caribbean Sea
this evening. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from 09N-17N between 76W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 06N12W to 04N17W to 06N32W to the Equator
near 47W. Besides convection associated with the tropical wave
above...scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side
of the axis between 13W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery over
Texas centered near 31N99W. This upper level feature supports a
broad area of lower pressure across Texas and the lower
Mississippi River valley focused on a 1012 mb low centered across
North Texas. A squall line extends from southwestern LA near
30N94W S-SW to offshore of Brownsville near 26N97W. Scattered to
numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring N of 25N W of
92W across the NW Gulf waters. Otherwise...the remainder of the
basin is under the influence of gentle to moderate E-SE winds on
the western periphery of a weak ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high
centered across the Florida Big Bend region. The middle to upper
level low is expected to drift east over eastern Texas through
Friday night then move S-SW over northern Mexico providing the NW
Gulf with increased chances of precipitation through the upcoming
weekend. Meanwhile...global models indicate an area of developing
low pressure across the Gulf of Honduras to move across the
Yucatan peninsula Sunday and into the south-central Gulf waters
Sunday night late into early Monday...reaching the NE Gulf by
early Tuesday. Likely hazards from this potential area of low
pressure will be increased winds and building seas across the NE
Gulf waters...in addition to the likelihood of heavy rainfall and
possible flooding across central and northern Florida early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly upper level flow is noted on water vapor imagery
across the SW and central Caribbean this evening promoting a
diffluent and unstable environment. Given the favorable lifting
dynamics and the presence of a tropical wave along 77W in the SW
Caribbean...scattered showers and tstms are occurring mainly S of
20N between 71W and 85W...including inland portions of Central
America. In addition...scattered showers and tstms are occurring
across the Greater Antilles and much of the their adjacent coastal
waters this evening due to upper level diffluence and peak daytime
heating and instability. Most of this convection is occurring
within fresh to strong trade winds that are expected to increase
slightly between 68W and 82W through the overnight hours into
Friday. As the area of strong trades translates westward Saturday
across the NW Caribbean waters...an area of low pressure is
expected to develop in the Gulf of Honduras Saturday night late
into early Sunday and move N-NW across the Yucatan peninsula then
into the south-central Gulf of Mexico early Monday. Strong to near
gale force SE winds will accompany this low pressure area on its
eastern periphery and impact the NW Caribbean waters and Yucatan
Channel region.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently scattered showers and tstms are occurring across the
island and adjacent coastal waters due to the base of an upper
level trough over eastern Cuba generating diffluence aloft and
peak daytime heating and low-level instability. The troughing
will lift north of the island Friday night and a general
improving trend in conditions is expected as NW flow aloft will
persist Saturday and Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a middle to
upper level trough with axis extending along 76W. The base of the
trough is over eastern Cuba this evening with diffluence flow
aloft noted east of the trough axis to 64W. Scattered showers and
tstms are occurring S of 26N between 65W and 79W. Otherwise...the
remainder of the region is under a weak surface ridge axis
extending from a 1026 mb high centered near 30N56W to the Florida
peninsula near 29N81W. The upper level troughing will move E of
60W by early next week as an upper level ridge anchored in the NW
Caribbean Sea south of Cuba will build over the waters W of 65W.
Finally...the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
broad subtropical high pressure area anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered near 30N48W and a 1026 mb high centered near 30N56W. The
only exception to the ridging spreading eastward to the African
coast is a weakening cold front extending into the discussion area
near 32N19W meandering SW to near 25N27W with possible isolated
showers occurring within 30 nm either side of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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