[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave rapidly moving across the Caribbean basin
is generating a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. The
tropical wave extends from 21N65W through the Virgin Islands to
a 1010 mb low near 15N65W to 12N64W. Although some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next day or
so, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase
after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of
days. However, locally heavy rains and gusty winds over portions
of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico are
expected through tonight. Please the Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends along 35W-
36W with a 1011 mb low along the wave near 11N. Wave and low are
moving west-southwest at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W and continues along 13N27W through the 1011
mb low near 11N36W 9N39W to 8N45W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 8N57W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are within 180 nm along the coast of Africa
from 7N-14N and from 5N-7N between 38W-43W. Clusters of isolated
moderate convection are within 210 nm north of the monsoon
trough between 34W-44W and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 45W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over the northwest Gulf near 28N92W
extending a ridge axis southwest to inland over Mexico near
Tampico. An inverted upper trough is over the west Caribbean
into the west Atlantic covering the east Gulf east of 88W and is
generating isolated showers and thunderstorms dotting the east
Gulf east of 90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are inland
over the Florida peninsula and the north Gulf coast east of
Texas and within 60 nm along the coastline. Similar showers and
thunderstorms have developed inland over the Yucatan peninsula
and are moving west into the east Bay of Campeche within 60 nm
along the coast. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic
across central Florida to a 1018 mb high near 27N90W continuing
to the Texas coast. The surface ridge will persist through
midweek. A surface trough will move off the west coast of the
Yucatan peninsula each evening then dissipate in the southwest
Gulf each morning through midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus this evening is the strong tropical wave moving
through the east Caribbean with strong winds, building seas, and
accompanying heavy rains. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 13N-17N between 63W-68W and elsewhere
north of 16N across the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and portions of Hispaniola between 60W-73W. These
conditions should reach Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday. An
inverted upper trough extends from over Central America across
the central Cuba into the west Atlantic covering the Caribbean
west of 79W and supporting a surface trough that extends from
22N82W to 17N84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are from 13N-17N between 81W-87W with isolated showers and
thunderstorms north of 17N to over Cuba between 80W-87W. The
monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W along the coast
of Panama near 9N79W to across Costa Rica near 9N83W generating
clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south
of 11N east of 78W to inland over Colombia. The winds and seas
associated with the tropical wave will shift into the Central
Caribbean Monday and into the west Caribbean by midweek.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
across the Dominican Republic with isolated showers moving over
Haiti. Showers and thunderstorms will spread west tonight
encompassing the island through Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An inverted upper trough extends from the west Caribbean across
central Cuba into the west Atlantic to 32N73W generating
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from
26N-29N between 77W-80W with isolated showers south of 26N west
of 74W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of
23N across the Greater Antilles between 67W-74W and south of 20N
between between 60W-67W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder
of the Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high over the Azores with
a ridge axis extending through 32N43W to a 1025 mb high near
31N56W continuing along 29N72W across central Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridge will persist through midweek. The
tropical wave over the east Caribbean will move through the
southwest Atlantic north of the Greater Antilles through Tuesday
accompanied by strong winds and building seas that will shift
west across the Bahamas late tonight into Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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