[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is
moving across the eastern Caribbean associated with a strong and
fast- moving tropical wave with axis extending from 21N63W to
10N64W. At this time, expect locally heavy rains and gusty winds to
affect portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico today/tonight. The chance for tropical cyclone
formation should increase after the wave reaches the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This feature has a medium
chance for development within the next 48 hours. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N33W
to a 1010 mb low near 10N34W to 08N34W. These features are moving west
at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a
700 mb low as depicted in the global models and is embedded within
a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water
Imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-15N between
33W-41W.

A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean. Please refer
to the special features section above for details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to the 1010 mb low near 10N34W to 08N41W
where the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N53W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave/low, scattered moderate
convection is in the vicinity of the Monsoon Trough along the
coast of western Africa from 07N-15N and east of 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low centered over the Bahamas is enhancing
convection across the eastern Gulf mainly east of 87W. At the
surface, A 1018 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico
near 27N88W. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow is noted in
scatterometer data across the basin. Surface ridging is expected
to continue through the next 24 hours while the upper-level low
over the the Bahamas will move over South Florida with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving over the E Caribbean enhancing convection
across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Please see
the section above for details. An upper-level inverted trough
prevails across the western Caribbean enhancing convection west of
75W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across
the basin with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia.
To the south, scattered moderate convection prevails in the
vicinity of the Monsoon trough south of 12N between 79W-84W. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving
west with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail over the
island as a tropical wave approaches. The wave will continue
moving west across the area through the next 24 hours with similar
activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave with embedded surface low are moving across the
central Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details.
An upper-level low is centered over the Bahamas enhancing
convection across the west Atlantic west of 76W. The proximity of
a tropical wave currently entering the eastern Caribbean, is
enhancing convection across the local waters north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola mainly south of 21N between 61W-71W. The remainder
of the basin is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered near 32N52W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the
upper-level low in the west Atlantic to move towards the southern
portion of the Florida Peninsula with convection. The tropical
waves will continue moving west with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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