[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201105
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 12N southward between 40W and 50W, and from
10N to 15N between 49W and 57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from 21N southward, across
Haiti, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 14N to Hispaniola between 66W and 72W.
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 30 NM to 60 NM
on either side of the line from 10N57W 15N62W 20N66W, cutting
across the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea.

A southwestern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 91W, from
21N southward, from the Yucatan Peninsula beyond Guatemala, moving
westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 22N93W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula to the
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in the
southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico and in parts of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 17N16W, to 11N22W, and 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from
09N30W to 07N38W and 07N45W in northern sections of Guyana.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
within 180 NM on either side of 11N16W 10N24W 05N35W. isolated
moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area. An upper
level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N93W in the
southwestern corner of the area. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate in general.

A surface ridge passes through northern Florida, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to a Mexico 1021 MB high pressure center
that is near 24N98W, to 19N97W near the Mexico coast.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR...KMDJ.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Patterson.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Biloxi. ALABAMA: LIFR in Evergreen. FLORIDA:
IFR at the Tampa Executive Airport. Light rain in the Key West
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow moves away from Honduras, in
order to cover the area that is to the south of the line that runs
from the coastal areas of Quintana Roo of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to 20N83W 16N76W, to the Peninsula de la Guajira of Colombia.
Upper level S to SE wind flow covers much of the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas to
Cuba along 78W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
17N northward to 24N in the Straits of Florida between the Bahamas
and northwestern Cuba.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.08 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow from an inverted trough is
present across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR. Few cumulonimbus clouds are being
reported in Barahona, Santo Domingo, and La Romana.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day
one will start with cyclonic wind flow from an inverted trough.
the trough will move northwestward, bringing S wind flow for the
rest of day one. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the area during day
two, as an anticyclonic circulation center moves across the area
during the entire day. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB and for
700 MB shows that broad SE wind flow will move across the area
during the next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad cyclonic wind flow from an upper level inverted trough
spans the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean that is to the
south of the line that runs from 20N70W to 27N77W, to the east
coast of Florida near 28N. A surface trough is between the Bahamas
and Florida. An upper level trough also passes through 32N72W to
28N74W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N
northward from 67W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 70W. A 1027 MB high pressure
center is near 34N44W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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