[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13N48W 09N47W 05N45W,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 12N southward between 40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, across the
Dominican Republic, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 to 15
KNOTS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 18N
between 66W and 70W.

A Central America tropical wave is along 89W/90W, from 21N
southward, from the Yucatan Peninsula beyond Guatemala, moving
westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 21N93W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the Gulf of Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula to the southwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong in the southwestern corner of the Gulf
of Mexico and in parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 21N17W, to 13N23W, 12N27W, and 08N39W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N39W to 10N47W and 08N59W in northern sections of Guyana.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 06N to 09N between 29W and 33W. isolated moderate to locally
strong from 05N to 11N from 28W eastward, and elsewhere from 12N
southward between 28W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area. An upper
level cyclonic circulation center is near 21N93W in the
southwestern corner of the area. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 27N southward.

A surface ridge passes through northern Florida near 30N83W to
27N95W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 21N97W along the Mexico coast.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Angleton/Lake Jackson. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA:
VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA: earlier MVFR in the Key West
metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow moves away from Honduras, in
order to cover the area that is to the south of the line that runs
from the coastal areas of Quintana Roo of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to 20N83W 16N76W, to the Peninsula de la Guajira of Colombia.
Upper level S to SE wind flow covers much of the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough passes through the Bahamas to southeastern Cuba.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N northward
from 78W westward, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 23N southward
between 70W and 80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.08 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow from an inverted trough is
present across Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR with few cumulonimbus clouds being
reported at some of the stations.

FOR HISPANIOLA: The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB and for 700 MB
shows that broad SE wind flow will move across the area during the
next 48 hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad cyclonic wind flow from an upper level inverted trough
spans the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean that is to the
south of the line that runs from 20N70W to 27N77W, to the east
coast of Florida near 28N. An upper level trough also passes
through 32N73W to 29N75W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 25N northward from 67W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 70W. A 1030 MB high pressure
center is near 34N45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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