[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 AM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the tropical central Atlantic with axis
near 40W, moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The
wave is embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to
850 mb as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. The wave is being
engulfed by Saharan dry air and dust that along with strong deep
layer wind shear in the region limit the convection to isolated
showers from 02N-13N between 35W and 45W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 62W,
moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. A low to
moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is
associated with the wave. Water vapor imagery show strong
subsidence in the vicinity of this wave. Convection is limited to
isolated showers E of the wave axis, especially across the
Windward Islands.

A tropical wave is across Central America with axis near 88W,
moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. A moderate
moist environment from the surface to 850 mb is associated with
the wave. Isolated showers and tstms are within 20 nm off the
southern coast of Belize. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and
tstms are inland mainly across El Salvador and Guatemala.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to
07N37W then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N40W to 10N55W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
showers are within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough and from
04N-13N between 45W and 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging across the central Atlantic continues to
extend westward over the Florida Peninsula and the entire Gulf of
Mexico basin. In the Gulf, the ridge is being anchored by a 1020 mb
center of high pressure near 27N84W that provides variable light
winds in the NE basin. Moderate return flow dominates elsewhere,
except within 90 nm off the western Yucatan Peninsula where a heat
trough locally tighten the pres gradient to support E-NE fresh
wind. A tropical wave currently along 88W moving W across Central
America will likely provide increased probability of scattered
showers and tstms across southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche Friday.
Otherwise, no major changes are expected during the next two
days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging across the SW North Atlc
and lower pressure across northern Colombia supports fresh to
locally strong trades across the majority of the central and SW
Caribbean. Generally moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.
In regards of convection, an upper-level elongated low centered
near the Bahamas and associated trough extending S across the NW
Caribbean support isolated showers along Cuba and adjacent
southern waters. Low surface pressure, abundant moisture and a
diffluent environment aloft supports scattered heavy showers and
tstms along Costa Rica and Panama adjacent waters within 120 nm
of the coasts. Otherwise, a tropical wave in the eastern basin
enhances showers over the Windward Islands. Next tropical wave
will enter the basin Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mainly dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are across the
Island suppressing the development of convection tonight. Stable
conditions are expected to prevail the next two days. However,
shallow moisture moving across the region along with day-time
heating may support the development of showers during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main feature across the basin is a tropical wave discussed in
the section above. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge dominates the
remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a 1028 mb center of
high pres SW of the Azores near 33N27W. A tight pres gradient
between this ridge and lower pres inland Africa support fresh to
strong N flow within 270 nm off the Mauritania and Western Sahara
coasts. Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to persist with
the broad surface ridging the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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