[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N37W to 13N39W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave remains embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with 700
mb troughing evident in model fields between 33W-42W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 32W-44W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N61W to 16N60W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 59W-64W with 850
mb relative vorticity focused over the Lesser Antilles near
16N61W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-10N between
60W-64W...and from 12N-14N between 58W-63W.

Tropical wave extends from 09N85W to 18N85W moving W at 15 kt.
This wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America between 84W-89W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-18N between 82W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
11N20W to 09N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 09N28W to 07N37W to 07N45W to 11N55W to 09N60W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of a line from
10N14W to 06N23W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-13N
between 45W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Relatively tranquil conditions continue this evening across the
basin as a 1022 mb high is centered across the NE Gulf near
28N84W. Primarily gentle to moderate S-SE winds persist and are
expected through the upcoming weekend with very little change. A
tropical wave currently along 85W moving W across portions of
Central America will likely provide increased probability of
scattered showers and tstms across southern Mexico and the SW Gulf
waters Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between ridging across the SW North Atlc
and lower pressure across northern Colombia supports fresh to
locally strong trades across the majority of the central and SW
Caribbean this evening. Generally moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere. Otherwise...the basin is mainly void of
convection...except for isolated showers and tstms occurring
across the Windward Islands in association with the tropical wave
along 61W...and scattered showers and tstms occurring across the
Gulf of Honduras...portions of Central America...and the adjacent
coastal waters of Nicaragua and Honduras in association with a
tropical wave along 85W. In addition...early evening scattered
showers and tstms are occurring across Cuba and are likely to
dissipate through the early overnight hours due to loss of peak
daytime heating and instability.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across NW portions of the
island this evening and this activity is likely to dissipate
through the early overnight hours. As southwesterly flow aloft
continues over the island and the approach of a tropical wave
currently along 61W moves south of Hispaniola during the next few
days...increased probability of precipitation and convection is
expected across the island through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad surface ridge axis extends from a 1026 mb high centered
near 29N33W across the central and SW North Atlantic regions
generally along 26N/27N. A cold front is analyzed north of the
discussion area across the central Atlc between 46W-60W generating
isolated showers and possible isolated tstms N of 28N between 44W-
60W. Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to persist with the
broad surface ridging the next few days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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