[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ON EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT.

GALE-FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
11 FEET TO 19 FEET ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO
29N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT
IS ALONG 31N76W 24N80W. GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF
25N WITHIN 270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. GALE-FORCE WEST
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 14 FEET ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...AND
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR
THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...IRVING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN AT 05N...
TO 04N10W AND 03N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N17W TO 02N22W
AND 02N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
04N TO 05N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 16W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND CUBA...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS... TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IS WITHIN 75 NM TO 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM 16N NORTHWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N70W...AND TO 23N75W
IN THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N75W 20N80W 16N86W...FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HONDURAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KSPR IFR VISIBILITY WITH HAZE.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KIPN...KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO LOUISIANA TO MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS.
ALABAMA...MVFR IN MOBILE. FLORIDA...MVFR FROM CRESTVIEW TO
PERRY...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PERRY. MVFR IN
BROOKSVILLE. LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE BEING REPORTED
IN THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND
REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N82W 25N61W 16N40W.

600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND
64W...FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...CYCLONIC
COVERING SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS...AND
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS NICARAGUA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING...MVFR...IS IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE TWO-DAY FORECAST PERIOD IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND TO THE WEST OF
COLOMBIA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
DAY ONE TO DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING DAY
TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 27N40W 23N50W AND
23N55W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N55W TO 24N63W
TO 26N69W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N30W BEYOND
32N27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W...AND FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. OTHER LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
ALSO ARE MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 19N TO 23N.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 30N42W 28N50W AND 30N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W 27N40W 25N50W 27N60W...
AND MERGING WITH THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT ARE
FROM 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N56W...BETWEEN THE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N17W TO
06N25W TO 05N35W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 11N17W 06N30W 06N45W 07N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 28N18W 23N28W...TO 20N40W AND 20N60W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT
IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N36W-TO-26N69W
TROUGH/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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